금연과 비만과의 관계에 대한 실증분석
An Empirical Analysis of Causality Relationship between Quitting Smoking and Obesity
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본 연구에서는 2005년 국민건강영양조사 원자료를 이용해서 금연이 비만에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 일상생활 활동정도로 조정된 칼로리 섭취량과 흡연여부를 외생변수로 간주하고 추정한 모형에서는 흡연자 그룹이 비흡연자 그룹에 비해 체질량 지수, 허리둘레 비만유병률 및 복부비만유병률이 낮았으나 이들 변수의 잠재적 내생성 문제를 통제하고 추정한 모형에서는 흡연자 그룹과 비흡연자 그룹 간에 이러한 차이가 사라졌다. 비흡연자를 흡연무경험자와 과거흡연자로 분리하고 과거흡연자를 금연기간에 따라 세부 구분하는 경우 금연 이후 금연기간이 길어짐에 따라 체질량지수와 허리둘레가 증가하다가 금연기간이 1년을 넘으면서 감소하기 시작하고 금연기간이 15년을 넘으면 흡연시기와 다시 같아지게 되는 경향을 보였다. 또한 금연기간 1년~5년에서만 흡연시기보다 비만과 복부비만 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 금연이 일시적으로 비만과 복부비만을 야기할 뿐 궁극적으로는 문제가 되지 않을 것이기 때문에 흡연자가 비만이나 복부비만을 염려해서 금연을 회피할 필요가 없을 것임을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper investigates how quitting smoking influences obesity using 2005 National Health and Nutrition Survey data. Estimation results considering both caloric intake adjusted for activity level and smoking as exogenous variables reveal that smokers have higher body mass index(BMI), waist circumstances(WC) and obesity rate than nonsmokers. However, the negative effects of smoking on BMI, WC and obesity rate disappear after controlling for their potential endogeneity. The results employing smoking variable classified in detail according to nonsmoking periods show that BMI and WC increase gradually as smokers quit smoking but they seem to decrease one year after smoking cessation, eventually returning to the level of smoking periods. Only those who have quit smoking for one to five years are likely to have higher obesity rate than current smokers. These results imply that smokers do not have to worry about being obese in deciding smoking cessation since it increases obesity temporarily if it does.
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