개발도상국 해외직접투자 유치 입지결정 요인과 중국의 상대적인 성과
Locational Determinants of FDI in Developing Country and Relative Performance of China
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개도국 해외투자 입지 결정 요인을 실증 분석한 뒤 이 모델에 근거해서 지난 20년간 여타 개발도상국들과 비교하여 중국으로의 거대한 해외직접투자 유입이 초과 유입이었는지를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 입지요인인 피투자국 시장규모, 경제 발전 정도, 경제성장율, 인적자본의 질, 경제의 개방도, 현지시장 매력요인의 대위변수인 현재 외국인 투자 유치액등은 해외투자 유치에 정의 영향을 미치는 요인으로 나타났다. 수정된 중력 모형에서 중요변수인 피투자국의 모든 투자국들로 부터의 상대적인 시장가중치를 감안한 원격성은 낮을수록 해외투자 유치가 활발한 것으로 나타나고 있어 거래비용이나 현지시장 친숙도가 중요한 해외투자 고려 요인임을 알 수 있었다. 중국이 상기의 입지요인과 중력모형에서 사용된 원격성 요인을 감안한 모델에 근거하여서도 다른 개발 도상국가 들에 비해 절대적인 해외직접투자 유치액이 제일 큼에도 불구하고 상대적인 초과 해외 유치 정도는 그렇게 크지 않다는 결론을 내릴 수 있었다.
Abstract
Since the 1990s and especially after China's accession to the WTO in 2001, China has become one of the most favored destinations for FDI. There are increasing concerns that China's FDI success has been excessive, thereby crowding out FDI inflows into other developing countries. This study is designed to investigate and answer three key questions. What are the location determinants of FDI inflows into developing countries? How China's emergence as a destination for FDI is affecting the ability of other countries to attract FDI? Has China really received excessive FDI inflows from the world?To answer this question we proposed and tested empirically a modified gravitiy model that includes host country locational determinants, gravity link variable and home country control variable. This paper has offered answers to this question by testing the hypothesis based on the location advantages of the OLI framework explaining FDI. In introducing the problems that author address, I assert the usefulness of modified gravity model. The basic idea underlying the gravity model is that interaction between two area is a function of the concentration of relavant variables in the two areas, and of the distance between them. The biggest advantage of our modified gravity model is to use remoteness instead of the absolute distance as the distance factor. Remoteness takes account of a country's geographic position relative to the rest of the world. In this study, in presenting the specified determinants of the country distribution of FDI inflows from all source countries into developing host countries, we shall therefore classify the determinants as source country variables, host country variables and linkage variables. The empirical study of the distribution of FDI inflows into developing countries by focusing on the host country location factors has demonstrated that, given the ownership the ownership advantages and the internalization advantages of the source countries, the location advantages of host countries are very important in determining the distribution of the magnitude of FDI inflows among developing countries. The main findings are: countries with a larger market size, faster economic growth, higher per capita income, higher quality of human capital, higher level of foreign stock and more liberalized economic regime attracted relatively more FDI inflows. Finally based upon our empirical model, China's relative performance in attracting FDI inflows was at a level only moderately above its potential. In other words, China received it s fair share of FDI inflows from the world or at most marginally more than its potential for the past two decades. Relatively low crowding out effect of China FDI inflow on the other asian countries implies that host country should enhance environmental location advantages such as investment incentives and competitive market instead of looking for inward FDI enhancement factor outside host country.
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