日本의 마이너스 金利政策과 日本 国內市場에 미치는 影響

Abstract

Prof. Joseph Eugene Stiglitz shows worry that quantitative easing providing the money on the market or negative interest rate policy to escape recession might bring about widening of inequality and weakening of the banking system so that it might have a negative impact on small businesses and small traders. Negative interest policy has a positive respect of the activation of the domestic economy, while it cannot exclude the possibility of bubble such as capital inflow into real estate. Practically shortly after negative interest was executed, Tokyo Stock Exchange's real estate investment trust index continued to rise. Secondly, due to deposit interest rate cut of Post Bank with Japan's largest deposits, it is likely that it affects other banks. It is a matter of alarming situation of bankruptcy because of bad profitability of commercial banks. Thirdly, it seems a weak yen would have limited effect. Immediately following the introduction of negative interest, there occurred long-term interest rate fall, stock price ascent and the drop in the exchange rate in the domestic market of Japan. Especially, it was difficult to expect yen's real interest rate decrease supposed to be a driving force for a weak yen. At present Japan's long-term interest rates dropped by 0.1 percent and the capacity of nominal interest rate decrease is limited. It is a different situation from 1.4% of German’s interest rates when introduced negative interest. Fourthly, it seems there will be a huge impact on domestic financial institutions.