개방화가 몽골의 경제성장에 미친 효과

Abstract

Generally speaking, the economic performances of the capitalist market economies were superior to the ones of socialist planned economies. Therefore by the early 1990s the past socialist planned economies such as USSR, China, eastern european countries etc. facing economic difficulties transformed their economic system into the capitalist market economies characterized by economic liberalization and have achieved comparatively good economic performances. Mongolia also has been achieving remarkable economic growth since the transformation of economic system in early 1990s. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic liberalization factors such as external trade and foreign direct investment(FDI) on Mongolian economic growth. The estimation values of ordinary least squares(OLS), generalized method of moments(GMM) and recursive estimation method(REM) using World Bank data during 1991-2016 roughly shows that the contribution ratio of external trade and FDI to the Mongolian economic growth are stably 0.016 and 0.002 respectively. Considering Mongolia is small open economy and developing country having small scale of external trade and FDI, the effects of external trade and FDI on economic growth is not so small. The other contribution ratio of consumption, investment, government expenditure are 0.413, 0.252, 0.152 respectively in GMM1. Some policy implications for Mongolia to improve the economic growth rate are as follows: Firstly, Mongolia should diminish the dependency ratio to China in external trade. For example Mongolia exported 87.8% of the total exporting goods to China and imported 41.8% of the total importing goods from China in 2017. Secondly, Mongolia should make various efforts to export its mineral resources in the form of manufactured goods rather than raw materials. So it is necessary to foster manufacturing sector to process its raw mineral materials in order to produce manufactured goods. Lastly, Mongolia should induce large FDI from foreign investors by fostering favorable FDI policy measures.