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나일강 물 분쟁: 갈등과 협력의 기로

Water Dispute on Nile River at the Crossroad of Conflict and Cooperation

송영훈|김동석
한국아프리카학회 (Korean Association Of African Studies)|2022.06|한국아프리카 학회지 (Journal of the Korean Association of African Studies)|제65권 |pp. 3-28

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협력cooperation갈등conflict이집트EgyptEthiopia에티오피아나일강 분쟁그랜드 에티오피아 르네상스 댐Nile River disputeGrand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
주제분류학제간연구

초록

2011년 ‘그랜드 에티오피아 르네상스 댐’ 건설을 계기로 나일강 수자원을 둘러싼 에티오피아와 이집트, 수단 간 갈등이 고조되고 있다. 에티오피아는 경제발전을 지탱하기 위해 나일강 개발이 필수적이라고 주장한다. 반면 이집트, 수단은 댐 건설이 자국으로의 물 유입을 감소시켜 생존을 위협한다고 주장한다. 세 국가 간 협상은 지금까지 성과를 내는데 실패하였다. 나일강 분쟁은 두 가지 상충되는 전망이 존재한다. 나일강을 둘러싼 당사국 간 인식의 대립, 민족주의 고취, 국내정치적 상황 등은 협상 타결에 장애물로 작용하며 갈등의 지속 혹은 고조에 일조할 수 있다. 반면 나일강을 둘러싼 갈등이 무력충돌로 이어지지 않은 역사, 협상의 부분적인 진전, 무력충돌 발생 시 높은 비용 발생 등은 나일강 갈등의 전쟁화를 방지하고 관련국의 해결 노력을 지속시킬 수 있다. 나일강을 둘러싼 협력 지속 전망에도 불구하고 긴장 고조가 무력 충돌을 일으킬 가능성을 완전히 배제할 수 없다. 따라서 에티오피아, 이집트, 수단은 갈등 악화를 방지하는 조치를 취함과 동시에 협상을 진전시킬 수 있는 방안을 모색할 필요가 있다. 뿐만 아니라 나일강 분쟁이 동아프리카 지역 정세에 끼치는 영향, 분쟁 해결 노력이 다른 강 분쟁 해결에 시사점을 제공할 수 있다는 점을 고려할 때 국제사회는 당사국의 해결 노력을 지원할 필요가 있다.

Abstract

Since Ethiopia started constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD) in 2011, tension among Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan has escalated. Ethiopia insists that developing the Nile River is essential to bolstering its economic growth. Whereas Egypt and Sudan fear that building GERD would reduce the inflow of Nile water, thereby posing a significant threat to their survival. Negotiations between the three countries failed to bear fruit. Two conflicting prospects for the Nile river dispute exist. On the one hand, collision over perception on the Nile, nationalism, and domestic politics would obstruct the efforts for dispute resolution, contributing to sustaining or exacerbating the dispute. On the other hand, history of no armed conflict erupting, partial progress of negotiations, and high costs of armed conflict would prevent the Nile river dispute from escalating into armed conflict as well as sustaining the efforts for dispute resolution. Despite the positive prospect, the possibility of armed conflict breaking out cannot be ruled out. Thus, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan need to take measures that can stem the aggravation of the dispute and advance negotiations. In addition, the international community needs to support protagonists' dispute resolution efforts because the Nile River dispute can affect wider East Africa region and the process of resolving this problem can provide insights to other river disputes.

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