관개취약성 평가모형 및 군집분석을 활용한 용수공급 위험도 평가
Water Supply Risk Assessment of Agricultural Reservoirs using Irrigation Vulnerability Model and Cluster Analysis
2
조회
0
다운로드
12
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Because reservoirs that supply irrigation water play an important role in water resource management, it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of thisparticular water supply resource. The purpose of this study is to provide water supply risk maps of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea using irrigationvulnerability model and cluster analysis. To quantify water supply risk, irrigation vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of thewater supply on the agricultural reservoir system using a probability theory and reliability analysis. First, the irrigation vulnerability probabilities of 1,346reservoirs managed by Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were analyzed using meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations over the past30 years (1981-2010). Second, using the K-mean method of non-hierarchical cluster analysis and pre-simulation approach, cluster analysis was appliedto classify into three groups for characterizing irrigation vulnerability in reservoirs. The morphology index, watershed area, irrigated area, and ratiobetween watershed and irrigated area are selected as the clustering analysis parameters. It is suggested that the water supply risk map be utilized as a basisfor the establishment of risk management measures, and could provide effective information for a reasonable decision making on drought risk mitigation.
Abstract
Because reservoirs that supply irrigation water play an important role in water resource management, it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of thisparticular water supply resource. The purpose of this study is to provide water supply risk maps of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea using irrigationvulnerability model and cluster analysis. To quantify water supply risk, irrigation vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of thewater supply on the agricultural reservoir system using a probability theory and reliability analysis. First, the irrigation vulnerability probabilities of 1,346reservoirs managed by Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were analyzed using meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations over the past30 years (1981-2010). Second, using the K-mean method of non-hierarchical cluster analysis and pre-simulation approach, cluster analysis was appliedto classify into three groups for characterizing irrigation vulnerability in reservoirs. The morphology index, watershed area, irrigated area, and ratiobetween watershed and irrigated area are selected as the clustering analysis parameters. It is suggested that the water supply risk map be utilized as a basisfor the establishment of risk management measures, and could provide effective information for a reasonable decision making on drought risk mitigation.
참고문헌 (41)
- Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements, "Allen, R. G.", United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, ~, pp.Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 (1998)
- Impact assessment of climate change for agricultural reservoirs considering uncertainty, "Cho, J. P.", APEC climate Center, ~ (2013)
- Graf, W. L., "Dam nation: a geographic census of American dams and their large-scale hydrologic impacts", Water Resources Research, 35(4), pp.1305~1311 (1999)
- 한수민, "통계적 기법을 활용한 피해대응자원 분류 알고리즘의 연구", 한국방재학회논문집, 14(1), pp.49~58 (2014), 한국방재학회
- Hayes, M. J., "Reducing drought risk: bridging theory and practice", Natural Hazards Review, 5(2), pp.106~113 (2004)
- Hayes, M., "The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, pp.485~488 (2011)
- Hwang, H. Y., "Empirical application for the urban disaster risk assessment: fire, facility and escape cases in Cheongju city", Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 1(2), pp.123~137 (2001)
- 장익근, "홍수기 농업용 저수지의 홍수조절용량의 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 56(4), pp.69~75 (2014), 한국농공학회
- 정의담, "지진에 대한 재해위험도 평가 모형에 관한 연구 - 청주시 사례 중심으로 -", 한국방재학회논문집, 10(5), pp.67~73 (2010), 한국방재학회
- 김응석, "기후변화를 고려한 재해환경 변화 분석 2. 침수위험지구 영향평가", 한국방재학회논문집, 13(4), pp.219~226 (2013), 한국방재학회
- 김성재, "주성분 분석을 이용한 농업생산기반의 재해 취약성 평가에 관한 연구", 한국농공학회논문집, 55(1), pp.31~38 (2013), 한국농공학회
- 고재경, "지방자치단체 기후변화 적응정책의 특성 연구 - 자연재해를 중심으로 -", 한국지역개발학회지, 22(1), pp.67~86 (2010), 한국지역개발학회
- Korean Rural Community and Agriculture Corporation, "Statistical yearbook of land and water development for agriculture" (2012), Ministry for food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
- 경민수, "군집분석을 통한 수문학적 가문의 가뭄심도-가문면적-가문지속기간 곡선의 작성", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 27(3B), pp.267~276 (2007), 대한토목학회
- 이민섭, "홍수 위험지도 제작을 위한 홍수 빈도별 침수지역 분석 -논산천·노성천 유역을 중심으로-", 기후연구, 9(2), pp.153~166 (2014), 기후연구소[DOI]
- Lehner, B., "Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoir and wetlands", Journal of Hydrology, 296, pp.1~22 (2004)
- Lakes and reservoirs in the EEA area, "Leonard, J.", European Environment Agency, ~, pp.Topic Report No. 1 (1999), 1999
- McDonald, C.P., "The regional abundance and size distribution of lakes and reservoirs in the United States and implications for estimates of global lake extent", Limnology and Oceanography, 57(2), pp.597~606 (2012)
- Nam, W. H., "A survey on irrigation timing and water saving strategies of agricultural reservoirs", Journal of the Korea National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage, 18(1), pp.81~93 (2011)
- 남원호, "농업용 저수지 공급량과 수요량의 확률분포 및 신뢰성 해석 기법을 활용한 물 공급 취약성 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 54(2), pp.37~46 (2012), 한국농공학회[DOI]
- 남원호, "A Real-Time Online Drought Broadcast System for Monitoring Soil Moisture Index", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 16(3), pp.357~365 (2012), 대한토목학회
- Nam, W. H., "A decision support system for agricultural drought management using risk assessment", Paddy Water Environment, 10(3), pp.197~207 (2012)
- 남원호, "저수지 가뭄지수를 활용한 농업가뭄 위험도 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 55(3), pp.41~49 (2013), 한국농공학회
- Nam, W. H., "Development of an irrigation vulnerability assessment model in agricultural reservoirs utilizing probability theory and reliability analysis", Agricultural Water Management, 142, pp.115~126 (2014)
- Nam, W.H., "Drought management and policy based on risk assessment in the context of climate change", Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 56(2), pp.2~15 (2014)
- 남원호, "기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 농업용 저수지의 미래 용수공급 지속가능성 전망", 한국농공학회논문집, 56(4), pp.59~68 (2014), 한국농공학회
- 박범섭, "다양한 기후변화 시나리오와 기후모델에 의한 남한지역 미래가뭄의 확률론적 전망", 대한토목학회논문집(국문), 33(5), pp.1871~1885 (2013), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- 박종용, "우리나라 가뭄 위험도 평가: 자료기반 가뭄 위험도 지도 작성을 중심으로", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 32(4), pp.203~211 (2012), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- 박소순, "확률·통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안", 한국방재학회논문집, 9(6), pp.57~68 (2009), 한국방재학회
- 손경환, "미래 기후·수문 정보에 따른 국내 가뭄의 전망 및 분석", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 47(1), pp.71~82 (2014), 한국수자원학회
- Sugawara, M., "Method of rainfall-runoff analysis" (1972), Kyoritsu Shuppan Press
- Svoboda, M., "The drought monitor", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), pp.1181~1190 (2002)
- Takeuchi, K., "Least marginal environmental impact rule for reservoir development", Hydrological Science Journal, 42(4), pp.583~597 (1997)
- 유철상, "한국 농업용 저수지의 형태학적 특성 분석", 대한지리학회지, 42(6), pp.940~954 (2007), 대한지리학회
- 유지영, "군집분석을 이용한 우리나라 가뭄특성의 공간적 분석", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 43(1), pp.15~24 (2010), 한국수자원학회
- 유지영, "군집분석과 이변량 확률분포를 이용한 가뭄빈도해석", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 30(6), pp.599~606 (2010), 대한토목학회
- Yoon, S. S., "Investigation of small reservoir in rural area", Journal of the Korea National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage, 14(2), pp.34~46 (2007)
- 윤홍식, "GIS 기법 및 발생자료 분석을 이용한 산사태 위험지도 작성", 한국지리정보학회지, 12(4), pp.59~73 (2009), 한국지리정보학회
- Wilhite, D. A., "Planning for drought: moving from crisis to risk management", Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 36(4), pp.697~710 (2000)
- Wilhite, D. A., "Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness", Water Resources Management, 21, pp.763~774 (2007)
- Wilhite, D. A., "Managing drought risk in a changing climate: the role of national drought policy", Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, pp.4~13 (2014)