시스템다이내믹스 모델을 이용한 농업용수 시스템의 기후 복원력 평가
Climate Resilience Assessment of Agricultural Water System Using System Dynamics Model
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This study aims at testing a hypothesis that the resilience of agricultural water systems is characterized by trade-offs and synergies of effects fromclimate and socioeconomic change. To achieve this, an Agricultural Water System Climate Resilience Assessment (ACRA) framework is established toevaluate comprehensive resilience of an agricultural water system to the combined impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes with a case studyin South Korea. Understanding dynamic behaviors of the agricultural water systems under climate and socioeconomic drivers is not straightforwardbecause the system structure includes complex interactions with multiple feedbacks across components in water and agriculture sectors and climate andsocioeconomic factors, which has not been well addressed in the existing decision support models. No consideration of the complex interactions withfeedbacks in a decision making process may lead to counterintuitive and untoward evaluation of the coupled impacts of the climate and socioeconomicchanges on the system performance. In this regard, the ACRA framework employs a System Dynamics (SD) approach that has been widely used tounderstand dynamics of the complex systems with the feedback interactions. In the ACRA framework applied to the case study in South Korea, theSD model works along with HOMWRS simulation. The ACRA framework will help to explore resilience-based strategies with infrastructure investmentand management options for agricultural water systems.
Abstract
This study aims at testing a hypothesis that the resilience of agricultural water systems is characterized by trade-offs and synergies of effects fromclimate and socioeconomic change. To achieve this, an Agricultural Water System Climate Resilience Assessment (ACRA) framework is established toevaluate comprehensive resilience of an agricultural water system to the combined impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes with a case studyin South Korea. Understanding dynamic behaviors of the agricultural water systems under climate and socioeconomic drivers is not straightforwardbecause the system structure includes complex interactions with multiple feedbacks across components in water and agriculture sectors and climate andsocioeconomic factors, which has not been well addressed in the existing decision support models. No consideration of the complex interactions withfeedbacks in a decision making process may lead to counterintuitive and untoward evaluation of the coupled impacts of the climate and socioeconomicchanges on the system performance. In this regard, the ACRA framework employs a System Dynamics (SD) approach that has been widely used tounderstand dynamics of the complex systems with the feedback interactions. In the ACRA framework applied to the case study in South Korea, theSD model works along with HOMWRS simulation. The ACRA framework will help to explore resilience-based strategies with infrastructure investmentand management options for agricultural water systems.
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