SWAT모형을 이용한 기후와 식생 활력도 변화가 수자원에 미치는 영향 평가
Assessment of Climate and Vegetation Canopy Change Impacts on Water Resources using SWAT Model
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Abstract
The objective of this study is to evaluate the future potential climate and vegetation canopy change impact on a dam watershed hydrology. A 6,661.5 km2 dam watershed, the part of Han-river basin which has the watershed outlet at Chungju dam was selected. The SWAT model was calibrated and verified using 9 year and another 7 year daily dam inflow data. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency ranged from 0.43 to 0.91. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model3 (CGCM3) data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) B1 scenario was adopted for future climate condition and the data were downscaled by artificial neural network method. The future vegetation canopy condition was predicted by using nonlinear regression between monthly LAI (Leaf Area Index) of each land cover from MODIS satellite image and monthly mean temperature was accomplished. The future watershed mean temperatures of 2100 increased by 2.0 ℃, and the precipitation increased by 20.4 % based on 2001 data. The vegetation canopy prediction results showed that the 2100 year LAI of deciduous, evergreen and mixed on April increased 57.1 %, 15.5 %, and 62.5% respectively. The 2100 evapotranspiration, dam inflow, soil moisture content and groundwater recharge increased 10.2 %, 38.1 %, 16.6 %, and 118.9 % respectively. The consideration of future vegetation canopy affected up to 3.0%, 1.3%, 4.2%, and 3.6% respectively for each component.
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