SPI 및 SDI 기반의 Seasonal ARIMA 모형을 활용한 가뭄예측- 충주댐, 보령댐 유역을 대상으로 -
Short Term Drought Forecasting using Seasonal ARIMA Model Based on SPI and SDI - For Chungju Dam and Boryeong Dam Watersheds -
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초록
In this study, the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) of meteorological drought and SDI (Streamflow Drought Index) of hydrological drought for1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months duration were estimated to analyse the characteristics of drought using rainfall and dam inflow data for Chungju dam (6,661.8km2) with 31 years (1986-2016) and Boryeong dam (163.6 km2) watershed with 19 years (1998-2016) respectively. Using the estimated SPI and SDI,the drought forecasting was conducted using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the 5 durations. For 2016 drought,the SARIMA had a good results for 3 and 6 months. For the 3 months SARIMA forecasting of SPI and SDI, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6,SPI12, SDI1, and SDI6 at Chungju Dam showed 0.960, 0.990, 0.999, 0.868, and 0.846, respectively. Also, for same duration forecasting of SPI andSDI at Boryeong Dam, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6, SDI3, SDI6, and SDI12 showed 0.999, 0.994, 0.999, 0.880, and 0.992, respectively. The SARIMA model showed the possibility to provide the future short-term SPI meteorological drought and the resulting SDI hydrological drought.
Abstract
In this study, the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) of meteorological drought and SDI (Streamflow Drought Index) of hydrological drought for1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months duration were estimated to analyse the characteristics of drought using rainfall and dam inflow data for Chungju dam (6,661.8km2) with 31 years (1986-2016) and Boryeong dam (163.6 km2) watershed with 19 years (1998-2016) respectively. Using the estimated SPI and SDI,the drought forecasting was conducted using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the 5 durations. For 2016 drought,the SARIMA had a good results for 3 and 6 months. For the 3 months SARIMA forecasting of SPI and SDI, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6,SPI12, SDI1, and SDI6 at Chungju Dam showed 0.960, 0.990, 0.999, 0.868, and 0.846, respectively. Also, for same duration forecasting of SPI andSDI at Boryeong Dam, the correlation coefficient of SPI3, SPI6, SDI3, SDI6, and SDI12 showed 0.999, 0.994, 0.999, 0.880, and 0.992, respectively. The SARIMA model showed the possibility to provide the future short-term SPI meteorological drought and the resulting SDI hydrological drought.
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