수중 무인 이동체의 운용 시나리오에 대한 임무 수행 리스크 평가 기술 연구
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study for Operation Scenarios of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
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초록
As the scale and complexity of unmanned systems increase, the need to generate and analyze virtual scenarios before actual operation is increasing. A scenario consists of a series of events that occur at a specific time period, and can be generated using real data or based on expert knowledge. Evaluating the risk of scenarios generated by probabilistic methods plays an important role in responding to system problems in advance and improving scenarios. In this study, in order to develop virtual operation scenario of a system without actual operation data, sequence information was specifically defined based on expert knowledge and three major factors affecting the risk of the scenario were quantitatively evaluated using the Markov Chain model. The evaluated factors are as follows: whether to implement a fault sequence, increase the failure probability of specific equipment elements, and adjust the limit number of times a normal sequence can be repeated. The risk assessment results provide useful guidelines to increase the success probability when the system is actually operated.
Abstract
As the scale and complexity of unmanned systems increase, the need to generate and analyze virtual scenarios before actual operation is increasing. A scenario consists of a series of events that occur at a specific time period, and can be generated using real data or based on expert knowledge. Evaluating the risk of scenarios generated by probabilistic methods plays an important role in responding to system problems in advance and improving scenarios. In this study, in order to develop virtual operation scenario of a system without actual operation data, sequence information was specifically defined based on expert knowledge and three major factors affecting the risk of the scenario were quantitatively evaluated using the Markov Chain model. The evaluated factors are as follows: whether to implement a fault sequence, increase the failure probability of specific equipment elements, and adjust the limit number of times a normal sequence can be repeated. The risk assessment results provide useful guidelines to increase the success probability when the system is actually operated.