고등교육 입학자원의 지역별 고착화 실증분석

Abstract

Due to the sharp decline in applicants for the 2022 academic year, the gap in the admission competition rate between metropolitan universities and regional universities has become more entrenched. The purpose of this study is to present the results of a clear empirical analysis on the structural difference in the admission competition rate between metropolitan universities and provincial universities. For the purpose of this study, using the mobility index based on the transfer probability, the phenomenon of fixed admission competition rates for metropolitan areas and provincial universities was analyzed. In other words, in this study, starting from the academic year 2022, when the college applicants drop sharply, using the interregional transition matrix, the transfer probability of the admission competition rate between the metropolitan area and regional level universities was examined, and how the structure of the entrance examination competition rate changed was analyzed. According to the analysis results, the transition matrix structure of metropolitan universities was more flexible (equal) than the transition matrix structure of regional universities. This result was more clearly shown in the mobility index between classes in the entrance exam competition rate. From the transfer matrix-based mobility index, the inter-class mobility of regional college admissions competition rates is smaller than that of metropolitan universities, indicating the results of an objective analysis of the “death phenomenon” of regional universities. Based on the results of this empirical analysis, a brief suggestion was made on a plan for fostering local universities.