한반도 가뭄의 동아시아 내에서의 지연상관
Lag-correlation of Korean Drought in East Asia
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The tendencies for teleconnection with a time lag and other characteristics of Korean summer droughts have been investigated and some clues to predict the drought occurrences several months before have been found. First, the May and June droughts in Korea are simultaneous with those over the northwestern part of Korea owing to the relation with the baroclinic wave. However, the July and August droughts occur over the mid-latitudes or southern part of Korea owing to the relation with the Changma front. Second, several months before the MJJA droughts in Korea, it is found that the effective drought index (EDI) over particular areas (hereafter, referred to as the omen areas) is large. Thailand, Carolina Island, Mongolia, and Central Bengal Bay were selected as the omen areas. Third, when the monthly minimum EDI (MME) of the omen area in winter is more than 0.7, it signifies that the precipitation is above normal, Korea has almost always experienced a summer drought. However, the droughts occurring with this type of relationship only represent half of the MJJA droughts in Korea. Fourth, the relationships between the Korean drought and the precipitation over omen areas in low latitudes are not valid over all the eight precipitation areas in Korea, but only over Areas I, II, and III, where heavy rains occur during spring and summer.
Abstract
The tendencies for teleconnection with a time lag and other characteristics of Korean summer droughts have been investigated and some clues to predict the drought occurrences several months before have been found. First, the May and June droughts in Korea are simultaneous with those over the northwestern part of Korea owing to the relation with the baroclinic wave. However, the July and August droughts occur over the mid-latitudes or southern part of Korea owing to the relation with the Changma front. Second, several months before the MJJA droughts in Korea, it is found that the effective drought index (EDI) over particular areas (hereafter, referred to as the omen areas) is large. Thailand, Carolina Island, Mongolia, and Central Bengal Bay were selected as the omen areas. Third, when the monthly minimum EDI (MME) of the omen area in winter is more than 0.7, it signifies that the precipitation is above normal, Korea has almost always experienced a summer drought. However, the droughts occurring with this type of relationship only represent half of the MJJA droughts in Korea. Fourth, the relationships between the Korean drought and the precipitation over omen areas in low latitudes are not valid over all the eight precipitation areas in Korea, but only over Areas I, II, and III, where heavy rains occur during spring and summer.
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