본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

빙권요소를 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절예측 시스템의 개발 및 검증

Development and Assessment of Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System Using the Cryospheric Variables

정지훈|정현숙|옥정|김백민|심태현
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)|2015.03|대기 (Atmosphere)|제25권 제1호|pp. 155-167

2

조회

0

다운로드

2

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

Snow depth initializationsea ice boundary conditiondynamical seasonal prediction system
주제분류대기과학

초록

A dynamical seasonal prediction system for boreal winter utilizing cryosphericinformation was developed. Using the Community Atmospheric Model, version3, (CAM3) as amodeling system, newly developed snow depth initialization method and sea ice concentrationtreatment were implemented to the seasonal prediction system. Daily snow depth analysis fieldwas scaled in order to prevent climate drift problem before initializing model’s snow fields anddistributed to the model snow-depth layers. To maximize predictability gain from land surface,we applied one-month-long training procedure to the prediction system, which adjusts soilmoisture and soil temperature to the imposed snow depth. The sea ice concentration over theArctic region for prediction period was prescribed with an anomaly-persistent method that considersseasonality of sea ice. Ensemble hindcast experiments starting at 1st of November forthe period 1999~2000 were performed and the predictability gain from the imposed cryosphericinformations were tested. Large potential predictability gain from the snow informationwas obtained over large part of high-latitude and of mid-latitude land as a result ofstrengthened land-atmosphere interaction in the modeling system. Large-scale atmospheric circulation responses associated with the sea ice concentration anomalies were main contributor to the predictability gain.

Abstract

A dynamical seasonal prediction system for boreal winter utilizing cryosphericinformation was developed. Using the Community Atmospheric Model, version3, (CAM3) as amodeling system, newly developed snow depth initialization method and sea ice concentrationtreatment were implemented to the seasonal prediction system. Daily snow depth analysis fieldwas scaled in order to prevent climate drift problem before initializing model’s snow fields anddistributed to the model snow-depth layers. To maximize predictability gain from land surface,we applied one-month-long training procedure to the prediction system, which adjusts soilmoisture and soil temperature to the imposed snow depth. The sea ice concentration over theArctic region for prediction period was prescribed with an anomaly-persistent method that considersseasonality of sea ice. Ensemble hindcast experiments starting at 1st of November forthe period 1999~2000 were performed and the predictability gain from the imposed cryosphericinformations were tested. Large potential predictability gain from the snow informationwas obtained over large part of high-latitude and of mid-latitude land as a result ofstrengthened land-atmosphere interaction in the modeling system. Large-scale atmospheric circulation responses associated with the sea ice concentration anomalies were main contributor to the predictability gain.

참고문헌 (27)

  1. Budikova, D., "Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation : A review", Global Planet. Change, 68, pp.149~163 (2009)
  2. Cohen, J., "Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability", Geophys. Res. Lett, 26, pp.345~348 (1999)
  3. Cohen, J., "The NAO, the AO, and global warming : How closely related?", J. Climate, 18, pp.4498~4513 (2005)
  4. Cohen, J., "The role of the Siberian high in Northern Hemisphere climate variability", Geophys. Res. Lett, 28, pp.299~302 (2001)
  5. Cohen, J., "Winter 2009-2010 : A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event", Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, pp.L17707~ (2010)
  6. Fletcher, C. G., "The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations", J. Climate, 22, pp.1208~1222 (2009)
  7. Ghatak, D., "On the emergence of an Arctic amplification signal in terrestrial Arctic snow extent", J. Geophys.Res., 115 (2010)
  8. Ha, H.-K., "Story of climate change reported by two polar scientists", pp.189~ (2014), Nomad publisher
  9. Hardiman, S. C., "Investigating the ability of general circulation models to capture the effects of Eurasian snow cover on winter climate", J. Geophys. Res, 113, pp.D21123~
  10. Honda, M., "Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters", Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, pp.L08707~ (2009)
  11. Jeong, J. -H., "Recent recovery of the Siberian High intensity. J. Geophys", J. Geophys.Res., 116 (2011)
  12. Jeong, J. -H., "Changes in occurrence of cold surges over east Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation", Geophys. Res. Lett, 32, pp.L14704~ (2005)
  13. Jeong, J. -H., "Stratospheric origin of cold surge occurrence in East Asia", Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, pp.L14710~ (2006)
  14. Jeong, J. -H., "Impacts of snow initialization on subseasonal forecasts of surface air temperature for the cold season", J. Climate, 26, pp.1956~1972 (2013)[DOI]
  15. Jun, S.-Y., "Sensitivity of Arctic warming to sea surface temperature distribution over sea-ice melted region in AGCM experiments", Clim. Dynam.
  16. 김백민, "Investigation of Stratospheric Precursor for the East Asian Cold Surge Using the Potential Vorticity Inversion Technique", 한국기상학회지, 45(4), pp.513~522 (2009), 한국기상학회
  17. Kim, B. M., "Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss", Nat. Commun, 5, pp.1~8 (2014)
  18. Koster, R. D., "Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill : First results from a multi-model experiment", Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, pp.L02402~ (2010)
  19. Koster, R. D., "The second phase of the global land–atmosphere coupling experiment : Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill", J. Hydrometeor, 12, pp.805~822 (2011)
  20. Liu, J., "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, pp.4074~4079 (2012)
  21. Reynolds, R. W., "An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate", J. Climate, 15, pp.1609~1625 (2002)
  22. Onogi, K., "The JRA-25 reanalysis", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, pp.369~432 (2007)
  23. Screen, J. A., "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification", Nature, 464, pp.1334~1337 (2010)
  24. 심태현, "가을철 빙권 조건을 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절 예측시스템의 개발", 대기, 23(1), pp.73~83 (2013), 한국기상학회
  25. Vavrus, S., "An improved parametri zation for simulating Arctic cloud amount in the CCSM3 climate model", J. Climate, 21, pp.5673~5687 (2008)
  26. Vihma, T., "Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate : A review", Sur. Geophys, 35, pp.1175~1214 (2014)
  27. 우성호, "겨울철 동아시아 지역 기온의 계절 예측에 눈깊이 초기화가 미치는 영향", 대기, 22(1), pp.117~128 (2012), 한국기상학회

관련 논문AI추천

가을철 빙권 조건을 활용한 겨울철 역학 계절 예측시스템의 개발김백민, 김성중, 김현경, 심태현, 정지훈한국기상학회 · 대기2013 · 제23권 제1호겨울철 동아시아 지역 기온의 계절 예측에 눈깊이 초기화가 미치는 영향김백민, 김성중, 우성호, 정지훈한국기상학회 · 대기2012 · 제22권 제1호전지구 계절 예측 시스템의 토양수분 초기화 방법 개선강현석, 서은교, 원덕진, 이명인, 정지훈한국기상학회 · 대기2016 · 제26권 제1호접합대순환모형의 초기조건 생산방법에 따른 북반구 겨울철 기온과 해수면 온도의 계절 예측성 비교 연구안중배, 이준리한국기상학회 · 대기2015 · 제25권 제2호현업 기후예측시스템에서의 지면초기화 적용에 따른 예측 민감도 분석이조한, 임소민, 지희숙, 현유경한국기상학회 · 대기2021 · 제31권 제3호S2S 멀티 모델 앙상블을 이용한 북극 해빙 면적의 예측성강현석, 박진경, 현유경, Tetsuo Nakazawa한국기상학회 · 대기2018 · 제28권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (14건)

단기 앙상블 예보에서 모형의 불확실성 표현: 태풍 루사임규호, 김세나pp. 1-18Ka-밴드 구름레이더 자료품질 및 구름통계 기초연구이규원, 하종철, 예보영, 이호우, 김연희, 권수현pp. 19-30Three Cases with the Multiple Occurrences of Freezing Rain in One Day in Korea (12 January 2006; 11 January 2008; and 22 February 2009)변희룡, 박창균pp. 31-49한반도 지형이 대상수렴운의 생성에 미치는 영향에 관한 WRF 민감도 실험김유진, 이재규pp. 51-66기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증김현미, 이승우, 계준경, 김세현pp. 67-83
원문 보기