2010년 태풍 특징
Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in 2010
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In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western NorthPacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics ofTCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TCgenesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecastin 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly datareveal that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Niño to LaNiña in June and the La Niña event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We foundthat these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TCdevelopment area prior to May and at tropics east of 140oE during summer mostly due to lowSST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event(in shifting time and La Niña intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallestTC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that theENSO episode shifting from El Niño to strong La Niña in summer leads to extremely low TCgenesis during La Niña although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs,DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula(KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above20°N and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought themost serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official trackforecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km,which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasingfor last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.
Abstract
In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western NorthPacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics ofTCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TCgenesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecastin 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly datareveal that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Niño to LaNiña in June and the La Niña event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We foundthat these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TCdevelopment area prior to May and at tropics east of 140oE during summer mostly due to lowSST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event(in shifting time and La Niña intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallestTC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that theENSO episode shifting from El Niño to strong La Niña in summer leads to extremely low TCgenesis during La Niña although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs,DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula(KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above20°N and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought themost serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official trackforecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km,which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasingfor last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.
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