임시투자세액공제 제도가 설비투자에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

Recently, with discussions on a sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate, the necessity for a review on tax credit systems is raised. In particular, there are many different opinions on the effects of the Temporary Investment Tax Credit System(TITCS) on the capital investment. In theory, the TITCS is known to stimulate the capital investment with the compound effect of ‘budget effect’ and ‘ROI increase effect'. However, academic studies on its economic effects bring different results. This study shows empirical analysis on the connection between the tax credit rate and the increase rate of the capital investment during the implementation period of the TITCS based on time series data through a regression analysis model. The period subject to analysis is set into three. First period is since 1982, the launch year of the TITCS, till the present. Second periods are when the system was operated and when it was not. Last period is where only the credit rates changed, either increased or decreased, while the TITCS was continuously enforced. Subject to these periods, this paper analyzes three economic indicators of the real economic growth rate, the increase rate of the capital investment and the temporary investment tax credit rate. As a result of the analysis, there was no substantial relation between the TITCS and the capital investment. That means the temporary investment tax credit rate does not have the effects on the increase rate of the capital investment whereas the real economic growth rate has the substantial effects on it. Moreover, it means the change of the tax credit rate, during the TITCS-implementation period, does not have the substantial effects on the capital investment rate. The reasons of this little effect of the long-term TITCS on investment attraction are as follows: First, the main motive of corporate investment decision is the expectation on general economic outlook and the TITCS is a secondary consideration. Second, as the TITCS has been activated almost permanently, the corporate investment pattern has changed. The TITCS needs to be improved pursuant to its initial purpose, expanding economic response ability. It is desirable to run the TITCS for a short term within a limited extent when there is a need for an economic boost and to run functional investment tax credit system, in ordinary periods, for environmental preservation, R&D, energy conservation, investment tax credit, etc.