중국에서 은행대출경로: 중국 은행별 데이터를 이용한 분석
Bank-lending Channel in China: Evidence from Chinese Bank-level Data
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초록
중국은 개혁개방 정책 이후 지속적으로 시장 친화적 개혁을 단행해 왔다. 특히 중국정부는 1998년 아시아 금융위기 이후, 개혁이 상대적으로 지체되어 있던 금융부문에 대해 포괄적이고 집중적인 개혁을 시행해 왔다. 하지만 중국경제 전문가들은 중국의 금융부문이 시장원리에 따라 운영되고 있는지를 두고, 서로 상반되는 견해를 보이고 있다. 본 연구는 중국 통화정책의 파급효과 가운데 하나인 은행대출경로의 유효성을 은행별 데이터를 이용해 실증적으로 분석한다. 연구결과 우리는 다음과 같은 결론을 도출한다. 첫째, 중국 금융부문의 대부분을 차지하는 국유상업은행과 합작상업은행에서 은행대출경로가 작동한다고 할 수 있다. 둘째, 은행 특성변수가 대출에 미치는 영향에서는 일관된 패턴을 발견하기 어렵다. 이는 중국의 통화정책이 가격변수(기준금리) 및 시장기제 뿐만 아니라, 기타 비가격 조정에 크게 의존하고 있음을 함축한다. 이러한 가격조정과 비가격조정을 보다 명확히 구분하여 측정하는 것은 향후 연구의 과제일 것이다.
Abstract
Since its initiative of reform and open-door policy in 1978, China has pursued market-friendly reform projects. In particular, after 1998 Asian financial crisis, the Chinese government has strived to establish price-driven financial system. Notwithstanding it, there is a deep skepticism on if Chinese financial system is governed by price mechanism and market disciplines. The present study is to partially answer this big question. Using a bank-level dataset, the present study empirically investigates the effectiveness of the so called bank-lending channel in China. As results, it finds that: first, bank-lending channel is at work for the state owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks; second, there is no systemic and consistent pattern for the effect of bank characteristic variables on change in the bank loan, which could imply that Chinese monetary policy could be transmitted through non-market mechanism as well as policy rates.
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