시장잠재량 모형과 확산 모형을 결합한 태양광 보급전망 방법론
A Methodology for Forecasting Photovoltaics Deployment by Combining Market Potential and Diffusion Models
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초록
In this study, we propose a methodology that combines the diffusion and market potential models in order to forecast the diffusion path of PV deployment. Potential volume ( ), a key feature of this approach and one of the main parameters of the diffusion model, is not estimated within the model itself. Instead, the market potential is estimated using the market potential model and then substituted into the diffusion model. A significant difference was found when comparing the two-parameter results projected by this methodology with the three-parameter results estimated within the model. However, the projected results of the two-parameter model, particularly under the current setback regulation scenario, were similar to the solar deployment targets set by the government. The advantage of the model proposed in this study is that it can be used to estimate the impact of changes in influencing factors, such as regulatory and support policies, on the diffusion path of PV deployment. Scenario analysis indicated that changes in municipalities’ setback distance regulations, which have recently been identified as having the greatest impact on PV deployment, can affect market potential, and that changes in market potential can, in turn, influence the diffusion path of PV deployment.
Abstract
In this study, we propose a methodology that combines the diffusion and market potential models in order to forecast the diffusion path of PV deployment. Potential volume ( ), a key feature of this approach and one of the main parameters of the diffusion model, is not estimated within the model itself. Instead, the market potential is estimated using the market potential model and then substituted into the diffusion model. A significant difference was found when comparing the two-parameter results projected by this methodology with the three-parameter results estimated within the model. However, the projected results of the two-parameter model, particularly under the current setback regulation scenario, were similar to the solar deployment targets set by the government. The advantage of the model proposed in this study is that it can be used to estimate the impact of changes in influencing factors, such as regulatory and support policies, on the diffusion path of PV deployment. Scenario analysis indicated that changes in municipalities’ setback distance regulations, which have recently been identified as having the greatest impact on PV deployment, can affect market potential, and that changes in market potential can, in turn, influence the diffusion path of PV deployment.
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