상선 선원의 인적과실 평가 모델 구축기법: 선박관리회사 적용 실례
Implementation Techniques for the Seafarer's Human Error Assessment Model in a Merchant Ship: Practical Application to a Ship Management Company
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초록
일반적으로 상선에서 해상운송 사고의 주된 원인은 선원의 인적과실로 고려되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선박에 승선 중인 선장, 1항사, 2항사 및 3항사를 포함하는 갑판사관들이 야기할 수 있는 사고 위기를 평가하기 위한 인적과실 모델(HEM)의 구축기법에 관해서 기술했다. 연 구범위는 130척의 선박을 관리하는 회사에 소속된 642명의 갑판사관들을 대상으로 했다. 우선, 갑판사관들의 인적 데이터에 대한 통계적 분석 과 전문가에 의한 브레인스토밍 과정을 통해서 HEM을 구축하고, 인적과실을 평가하기 위한 인적요소들의 변수 υ 와 υ 에 대한 평가등급 EP(υ) 및 가중치 α , 갑판사관의 직책별 가중치 β등을 결정했다. 그리고 선박의 사고기록에 대한 통계분석 결과, 인적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 γH 와 외적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 γB은 0.517(51.7%)과 0.483(48.3%)로 나타났다. υ 의 상관계수는 95%(p<0.05) 신뢰구간에서 유의 함을 확인하였고, 각 갑판사관의 위기수준 RL의 정규 확률분포 분석으로부터 HEM의 타당성을 검토했다.
Abstract
In general, seafarer's human error is considered to be the preponderant cause for the majority of maritime transportation accidents in a merchant ship. The implementation techniques for Human Error Model (HEM) to assess possible accident risk by deck officers including captain, chief officer, second mate and third mate are described in this study. The scope of this work is focused to 642 deck officers in the ship management company with 130 vessels. At first, HEM can be constructed through the statistical analysis and expert's brainstorming process with human data to 642 deck officers. Then the variables υ for the human factors, the evaluation level EP(υ) for υ , the weight α of υ , and the title weight β of each deck officers can be decided In addition, through the analysis of ship's accident history, the accident causation ratios by human error γH and by external error γB can be found as 0.517(51.7%) and 0.483(48.3%), respectively. The correlation coefficients to υ are also shown significant for a 95% confidence interval (p<0.05) for each coefficient. And the validity of HEM is also surveyed by the analysis of normal probability distribution of risk level RL to each deck officer.
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