A Study on the Development of Typhoon Track Forecast Model Based on the Past Track Data

Abstract

This paper is aimed to develop a mathematical model for making the forecast information of typhoon's movement such as the estimated movement direction and positions after 24 and 48 hours. The proposed model calculates such kind of information of a typhoon by similar past typhoon's track data which are selected with three similarity criteria among the database of typhoons' tracks for past fifty years. We carried out a simulation forecast with No.14 typhoon formed in 1997, and found that the results of the proposed model were reasonable and it would be suitable for a simulation system for training mariners so that they can take suitable actions to evade the typhoons.