글로벌 공급망 압력이 Sea&Air 물동량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
A Study on the Impact of Global Supply Chain Pressure on Sea&Air Freight
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Covid-19 팬데믹, 미·중 무역 분쟁과 같이 특수한 상황에서 글로벌 공급망 관리의 중요성이 중요해지고 있다. Sea&Air 복합운송은 항공운송에 비해 비용이 저렴하고 해상운송에 비해 신속하게 운송이 가능하다는 장점을 가진다. 글로벌 공급망의 불확실성에 대응하여 안정적인 Sea&Air 복합운송을 이어나가기 위해서는 글로벌 공급망 압력이 국내 Sea&Air 물동량에 미치는 영향을 파악하고 구체적인 대응방안을 수립할 필요가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 Sea&Air 물동량의 99% 이상을 취급하는 주요 항만(인천항, 군산항, 평택항)과 인천국제공항을 중심으로 벡터자기회귀모형 분석, 충격반응함수, 예측오차 분산분해 분석을 통해 글로벌 공급망 압력지수와 항만 물동량, 항공 물동량, Sea&Air 물동량 간의 관계를 파악하였다. 분석결과, Sea&Air 물동량은 항만 물동량 및 항공 물동량과 비교하여 글로벌 공급망 압력에 더 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 국내 Sea&Air 복합운송의 운영체계와 관련된 다양한 시사점을 도출하였다.
Abstract
Global supply chain management has become increasingly important in special circumstances, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the U.S.-China trade dispute. Sea&Air intermodal transportation offers advantages of lower costs compared to air transportation and faster delivery than ocean transportation. To maintain stable Sea&Air intermodal operations in response to the uncertain global supply chain, it is essential to understand the impact of global supply chain pressures on Sea&Air volumes. This study analyzed the relationship between the global supply chain pressure index, port volume, air volume, and Sea&Air volume using vector autoregressive model analysis, impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition analysis, focusing on three main domestic ports (Incheon Port, Gunsan Port, and Pyeongtaek Port) as well as Incheon International Airport. The analysis revealed that Sea&Air volumes are more sensitive to global supply chain pressures compared to port volumes and air volumes. Based on these findings, various implications for domestic Sea&Air intermodal transportation have been identified.
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