산업별 은행대출 편중도와 잠재적 산업 위험
The Industry Bank Loan Concentration and Its Potential Risk
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초록
본 논문은 2002~2012년간 한국의 상장기업을 대상으로 은행 대출의 산업별 편중도를 진단하고, 이러한 산업별 은행대출 편중도와 해당 산업의 잠재적 위험과의 연관성을 분석하였다. 산업별 은행대출 편중도는 은행전체의 관점에서 산정한 산업별 대출비중을 산업별 매출비중으로 나누어 산출하였다. 잠재적 산업 위험 요인은 산업별 재무 지표 등을 이용해 산정한 산업별Altman Z-score 모형을 이용하여 산정한 점수로 정의하였다. 산업별 은행대출 편중도를 산정한 결과에 의하면, 과반 이상(58%)의 산업에서 대출비중이 매출비중을 초과하는 Over Exposure인 것으로 나타났다. 패널 회귀분석 결과에 따르면, 산업별 은행대출 편중도가 클수록 산업 위험도 높거나 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the industry bank loan concentration and its risk using the Korean listed companies from 2002 to 2011. We measured the bank loan concentration ratio on industry dividing the bank loan ratio(of each industry to total industry) by the sale ratio(of each industry to total industry). Following the Altman Z-score suggested by Altman(1968), we measured the potential industry risk. Empirical analyses in this paper show that the more than half of sample industries has the bank loan concentration ratio of more than 1, which means the over exposure of bank loan. According to the result of panel analysis, the higher bank loan concentration can increase the potential industry risk. In addition, when the bank loan over exposure continues for 2 years, the potential industry risk could be increased.
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