편익이전 기법을 통한 탄소의 사회적 비용 추정
Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon through Benefit Transfer Techniques
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기후변화에 대한 대응이 국제사회에서 중요한 이슈로 부각되면서 비용효과적인 탄소저감정책인 탄소가격제도 또한 여러 나라에서 적극적으로 고려되고 있다. 이론적으로 탄소가격이 탄소의 사회적 비용(SCC)과 같은 수준으로 설정된다면 최적의 의사결정을 유도할 수 있는 것으로 기대되기에, 본고는 적정 수준의 가격 설정에 도움이 되도록 최근 미국에서 추정된 SCC 값들에 대하여 가치이전과 메타분석을 통해 국내 SCC로 재추정하였다. 분석결과, 가치이전 추정치는 IWG(2021)의 경우 45,548원/tCO2, EPA(2023)의 경우 107,172원/tCO2로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 31개 선행연구의 560개 SCC 추정치를 표본으로 하는 메타회귀분석의 편익이전 결과와도 일관적이었다. IWG(2021)에 대한 편익이전 결과는 기존 국내 예비타당성조사에서 활용하는 SCC값(44,000원/tCO2)과 매우 유사하지만, EPA(2023)에 대한 편익이전 결과는 기존보다 두 배 이상 높게 추정되어 향후 해당 수치가 탄소가격으로 활용될 경우 기업들의 탄소저감활동을 강하게 유도하는 효과가 나타날 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
Amid the increasing emphasis on addressing climate change as a critical issue in the international community, cost-effective carbon reduction policies such as carbon pricing mechanisms are actively being considered in many countries. In theory, carbon pricing is expected to induce optimal decision- making by applying a price level equivalent to the social cost of carbon (SCC). This study re-estimates domestic SCC values through value transfer and meta-analysis based on recent estimates of SCC values in the United States. The analysis shows that the value transfer estimates are 45,548 KRW/tCO2 for IWG (2021) and 107,172 KRW/tCO2 for EPA (2023). These results are consistent with the benefit transfer results of meta-regression analysis using 560 SCC estimates from 31 previous studies. The benefit transfer results for IWG (2021) are very similar to the SCC value (44,000 KRW/tCO2) commonly used in existing domestic preliminary feasibility studies. However, the benefit transfer results for EPA (2023) are estimated to be more than double the previous estimate, suggesting that if this figure is used as the carbon price in the future, it will exert strong pressure on companies’ carbon reduction activities.
참고문헌 (19)
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