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포스트 소비에트 공간의 민족-언어 분규 비교

A Comparative Analysis of the Ethnic-Language Conflicts in Post-Soviet Space

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초록

The ethnic-language conflicts in the post-Soviet space were examined using four regions as examples. First, it was discovered that ethnic-language conflicts in Caucasus, a relatively small area inhabited by many ethnic groups, resulted from the establishment of an indigenous-led nation-centered state after independence. The Baltic region showed extreme discrimination against Russians and Russian language in Latvia and Estonia, which have about a quarter of Russian residents, and Lithuania, which has relatively few Russians, showed flexibility, but turned anti-Russia from 2022 year. Moldova, surrounded by Ukraine and Romania, has until recently been a pro-Russian state, but has shifted to pro-Western and anti-Russian policies since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the future of Pridnestrov’e (Transdenstria) and the autonomous region of Gagauzia is of great interest. Finally, with Russia's annexation of Crimea, the civil war in Donbass (collectively referred to as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics) and Russia's special military operation in February 2022 found that long-suspected disputes over ethnic and language turned into bloody wars. These four regions were all Soviet Federal Republics of the Soviet Union and had significant influence from Russians and Russian language, but their geopolitical characteristics differed slightly, and the degree of affinity and fear for Russia differed according to national sentiment, tradition, and economic dependence. In addition to the political, economic, and military influence of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space as a whole, Russia's culture, information accumulation, and Russian influence, that is, ‘Soft power’, could be predicted to fall sharply. Since the founding of the Soviet Union, Russia and the Russian people have made great efforts to secure Russian as a means of eradicating illiteracy, spreading communism around the world, and expanding and preserving its function and role as the most basic means of communication for more than 130 multi-ethnic countries. Thus, Russians, Russian-speaking residents, and Russian protection in four regions, including Ukraine, clearly imply the possibility of Russian intervention, but the Russian Federation is unlikely to achieve its goal, which will seriously damage Russia's international status in the post-Soviet space.

Abstract

The ethnic-language conflicts in the post-Soviet space were examined using four regions as examples. First, it was discovered that ethnic-language conflicts in Caucasus, a relatively small area inhabited by many ethnic groups, resulted from the establishment of an indigenous-led nation-centered state after independence. The Baltic region showed extreme discrimination against Russians and Russian language in Latvia and Estonia, which have about a quarter of Russian residents, and Lithuania, which has relatively few Russians, showed flexibility, but turned anti-Russia from 2022 year. Moldova, surrounded by Ukraine and Romania, has until recently been a pro-Russian state, but has shifted to pro-Western and anti-Russian policies since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the future of Pridnestrov’e (Transdenstria) and the autonomous region of Gagauzia is of great interest. Finally, with Russia's annexation of Crimea, the civil war in Donbass (collectively referred to as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics) and Russia's special military operation in February 2022 found that long-suspected disputes over ethnic and language turned into bloody wars. These four regions were all Soviet Federal Republics of the Soviet Union and had significant influence from Russians and Russian language, but their geopolitical characteristics differed slightly, and the degree of affinity and fear for Russia differed according to national sentiment, tradition, and economic dependence. In addition to the political, economic, and military influence of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space as a whole, Russia's culture, information accumulation, and Russian influence, that is, ‘Soft power’, could be predicted to fall sharply. Since the founding of the Soviet Union, Russia and the Russian people have made great efforts to secure Russian as a means of eradicating illiteracy, spreading communism around the world, and expanding and preserving its function and role as the most basic means of communication for more than 130 multi-ethnic countries. Thus, Russians, Russian-speaking residents, and Russian protection in four regions, including Ukraine, clearly imply the possibility of Russian intervention, but the Russian Federation is unlikely to achieve its goal, which will seriously damage Russia's international status in the post-Soviet space.

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