기후변화가 한 국 산림에 미치는 영향과 관리 전략
Climate Change Impact on Korean Forest and Forest Management Strategies
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본고에서는 기후변화와 산림생장, 수종변화, 탄소저장, 임목고사 간의 관계에 대한 연구들을 소개하고, 기후변화 대응을 위한 관리 전략을 제언하고자 한다. 1) 산림생장측면에서 보면, 소나무를 포함한 우리나라 주요 침엽수종들의 생장은 기온과 음의 상관관계를, 굴참나무와 신갈나무를 포함한 낙엽성 참나무류는 양의 상관관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 2) 수종분포 측면에서 보면, 다양한 모델에서 동일하게 중·장기적으로 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 침엽수림의 분포가 감소하고, 참나무류의 분포가 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 3) 탄소저장량 측면에서는 산림관리 여부에 따라 예측 결과에 큰 차이가 있었다. 우리나라 산림은 2030년 이후에 대부분 노령림으로 성숙되며, 현재 벌기령을 유지하여 주벌과 재조림을 실시할 경우 2090년까지 약 4.1억 톤의 산림바이오매스를 생산할 수 있을 것으로 추정되었다. 4) 임목고사 측면에서 보면, 우리나라 주요 침엽수종들은 기온이 높은 곳에서 고사율이 증가하는 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 반대로 참나무류는 고사율이 감소하는 것으로 나타났으나 통계적인 유의성은 검증되지 않았다. 또한, 기후변화에 의해 아고산 침엽수종들의 고사가 급격하게 진행될 것으로 예측되었다. 위의 영향들을 종합적으로 고려하였을 때, 먼저 상대적으로 기후변화에 취약한 침엽수림에 대한 관리전략이 필요한 것으로 사료된다. 또한, SDGs, 생태계서비스, 탄소역배출 등의 국제적 이슈와 연계시켜 지속가능한 산림계획을 생태계서비스 및 탄소흡수·저장 측면에서 수립 및 이행해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
This manuscript describes the relationship between climate change and forest growth, forest species, carbon stocks, and tree mortality. 1) In the aspect of forest growth, the growth of major coniferous species, including Pinus densiflora, had a negative correlation with temperature. On the other hand, major deciduous oak species, including Quercus variabilis and Quercus mongolica, had a positive correlation with temperature. 2) When considered in the aspect of the forest species distribution, various models commonly showed a decrease in the distribution of coniferous species and an increase in oak species due to climate change in the medium to long term. 3) From the carbon stock perspective, there was a difference in the estimation according to the status of forest management. Most of Korean forests will mature to become over-matured forest after year 2030 and are estimated to produce approximately 410 million ton forest biomass until 2090 with the current cutting regulations for sustainable forest management announced by the Korean Forest Service. 4) In the forest mortality, the mortality rate of the major coniferous species showed a clear tendency to increase higher temperatures while it decreased for the oak species with no verification of statistical significance. Moreover, the mortality of the subalpine coniferous species was projected to progress rapidly. considering the overall impacts described above, there should be a management strategy for coniferous species that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, a sustainable forest plan in the aspect of ecosystem services, carbon sequestration and storage, which is linked to global issues such as Sustainable Development Goals, ecosystem services and negative emission.
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