북한 산림복원 전략에 따른 탄소저장량 잠재성 평가
Assessment of potential carbon storage in North Korea based on forest restoration strategies
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본 연구는 북한의 과거 토지이용 변화의 경향성을 반영한 토지이용 변화 시나리오에 따라 2050년까지의 탄소저장량 변화를 평가하였다. 토지이용 변화 시나리오는 과거 시점의 상태로부터 현 상태를 예측할 수 있는 CA-Markov 모델링을 통해 구축하였으며, 이를 위해 북한 산림복원을 위한 대내·외 노력이 시도된 2010년 전후의 토지이용 공간정보를 통해 추정한 토지이용 유형별 변화 경향성을 활용하였다. 이를 통해 산림황폐화 (non-reforestation)와 산림복원 (reforestation) 시나리오를 마련하였으며, 토지이용 변화에 따른 북한 탄소저장량 변화를 평가하였다. 북한의 토지이용 유형별 탄소저장량은 우리나라를 대상으로 수행된 연구문헌 조사를 통해 도심지, 산림, 농경지, 초지, 나지의 지상부, 지하부, 토양, 기타 유기물에 대한 추정값을 적용하였다. 북한을 대상으로한 대내·외 산림복원 노력은 2050년의 탄소저장량을 2020년 대비 4.4% 증진시킬 수 있는 잠재력을 지닐 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 산림복원의 노력없이 황폐화가 지속된다면 2050년 탄소저장량은 2020년 대비 11.5% 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 이에 따라 북한의 탄소저장량 증진을 위해서 대내·외의 지속적인 노력이 매우 중요할 것으로 판단된다. 따라서, 장기적으로 북한의 산림복원을 위한 노력과 협력을 추진됨에 있어 본 연구에서 제시하는 결과가 기여할 수 있길 기대한다.
Abstract
This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the potential impact of deforestation and forest restoration on carbon storage in North Korea until 2050, employing rigorous analyses of trends of land use change in the past periods and projecting future land use change scenarios. We utilized the CA-Markov model, which can reflect spatial trends in land use changes, and verified the impact of forest restoration strategies on carbon storage by creating land use change scenarios (reforestation and non-reforestation). We employed two distinct periods of land use maps (2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020). To verify the overall terrestrial carbon storage in North Korea, our evaluation included estimations of carbon storage for various elements such as above-ground, below-ground, soil, and debris (including litters) for settlement, forest, cultivated, grass, and bare areas. Our results demonstrated that effective forest restoration strategies in North Korea have the potential to increase carbon storage by 4.4% by the year 2050, relative to the carbon storage observed in 2020. In contrast, if deforestation continues without forest restoration efforts, we predict a concerning decrease in carbon storage by 11.5% by the year 2050, compared to the levels in 2020. Our findings underscore the significance of prioritizing and continuing forest restoration efforts to effectively increase carbon storage in North Korea. Furthermore, the implications presented in this study are expected to be used in the formulation and implementation of long-term forest restoration strategies in North Korea, while fostering international cooperation towards this common environmental goal.
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