CIS 지역 내 국부펀드의 형성과 발전: 러시아와 카자흐스탄의 사례 연구
Rise and Development of Sovereign Wealth Funds in CIS region: The Cases of Russia and Kazakhstan
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2000년대 이후 원유를 중심으로 한 국제원자재 가격의 상승과 이에 따른 원자재 수출국들의 외환 보유액이 빠르게 증가함에 따라, 신흥 원자재 수출국가들은 외환보유액을 기반으로 국부펀드 창설을 본격화하기 시작하였다. 원자재수출에 대한 경제의존도가 큰 러시아와 카자흐스탄 역시 국제원자재 가격 하락에 따른 경기하강에 대처하고 경기 흐름에 따른 원자재 가격의 움직임에 자국 경제의 의존성을 낮추기 위한 수단으로서 국부펀드를 창설하였다. 러시아는 2004년 석유안정화 기금을 창설한 이후 2008년 준비기금과 국부펀드로 기능을 분리하여 운영하였다. 준비기금은 원자재 가격 하락에 대비한 일종의 보험기능의 성격을 가지며 매우 보수적으로 운영되고 있으며 국부펀드는 적립된 자산을 투자를 통해 수익을 창출하고자 하는 목적으로 운영되고 있다. 2012년 3월 현재 준비기금과 국부펀드의 재원은 총 약 1,500억 달러(U$)를 상회하여 세계 국부펀드 금액기준 상위 10위에 해당하고 있으며 준비기금과 달리 국부펀드는 2008년 금융위기 이후 자국 기업에 대한 투자를 강화하는 등 공격적인 투자행태를 보이고 있다. 카자흐스탄은 2000년 처음으로 국부펀드를 창설하였고, 러시아와 마찬가지로 원유 및 가스가격 상승으로 인해 약 400억 달러(U$)에 가까운 재원을 확보하여 세계 20위권의 대형 국부펀드로 성장하였다. 저축과 안정화라는 두 가지 목적으로 운영되고 있으며 초기에는 주로 안정적 자산에만 투자하였으나 투자포트폴리오를 다양화하려고 시도하고 있다. 양 국가의 국부펀드는 모두 원유를 중심으로 한 원자재 가격 상승을 기반으로 운영되고 있으며 현재까지 대체로 보수적인 운영행태를 보여왔으나 투자 대상을 다변화하려는 움직임을 보이고 있다는 측면에서 공통점이 있으나 카자흐스탄 국부펀드가 정부재정에 대한 보조적 기능을 일부로 제한하고 있는 반면, 러시아 국부펀드는 준비기금으로 분리된 국부펀드의 기능이 정부재정 부족분을 상쇄하도록 구조화되어 있다는 점은 차이점으로 볼 수 있다.
Abstract
Since the 2000s with the rise of international commodity prices and foreign reserves of raw material exporting countries lead them to establish sovereign wealth funds(SWFs). Russian and Kazakhstan, largely dependent on export of raw materials, especially on oil, were also founded SWFs to reduce the impact of global economic downturn and volatile raw material prices. Russia established Oil Stabilization Fund in 2004, and separated it to Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund. Reserve Fund is being operated conservatively functioning as a insurance against decline of raw material prices, and National Welfare Fund was to set up to invest more profitable assets. Reserve fund and National Welfare Fund amount totally about 150 billion US dollars reaching top 10 worldwide SWFs ranking. Since the 2008 financial crisis, National Welfare Fund is strengthening aggressive behavior like investing some domestic companies. Kazakhstan established SWF in year 2000, and has grown to top 20 of the world SWFs amounting about 40 billion US dollars due to the rising of oil and gas prices. This fund is operated on the object of savings and stabilization. The initial investment was mainly focused on stable assets but recently portfolio is diversified. Both SWFs are based on the rising prices of raw material as oil and gas, and had shown generally conservative operating behavior but a move to diversify investment is in common. Kazakhstan SWF is limiting auxiliary function to government budget deficit, but Russian Reserve Fund separated from the National Welfare Fund is structured to fully offset the deficit of government budget.
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