Economic Growth, Campaign Pledges and Election Outcomes
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This paper aims to figure out the economic factors which affect the electoral outcomes. Theoretical literature on political business cycle(PBC) suggests that rapid economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy can raise re-election probability of the incumbents, which has hardly been supported by empirical evidence. Contrary to previous empirical research, I set the variable representing fiscal policy based on not ‘what they did’ but ‘what they say that they will do’. Employing the CMP(Comparative Manifesto Project) data of 402 parliamentary elections over 49 countries, I jointly measure the impact of economic growth during the term in office and the campaign pledges of the ruling party on fiscal policy. I find that voters are likely to reward the incumbent party for economic growth over the term in office. I also find that the ruling party’s policy statements mentioning welfare state are effective in the electoral campaigns. This effect is more significant in the countries with high income/democracy level than in the countries with low income/democracy level.
Abstract
This paper aims to figure out the economic factors which affect the electoral outcomes. Theoretical literature on political business cycle(PBC) suggests that rapid economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy can raise re-election probability of the incumbents, which has hardly been supported by empirical evidence. Contrary to previous empirical research, I set the variable representing fiscal policy based on not ‘what they did’ but ‘what they say that they will do’. Employing the CMP(Comparative Manifesto Project) data of 402 parliamentary elections over 49 countries, I jointly measure the impact of economic growth during the term in office and the campaign pledges of the ruling party on fiscal policy. I find that voters are likely to reward the incumbent party for economic growth over the term in office. I also find that the ruling party’s policy statements mentioning welfare state are effective in the electoral campaigns. This effect is more significant in the countries with high income/democracy level than in the countries with low income/democracy level.
참고문헌 (32)
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