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Mobility-Based Explanation of Crime Incentives

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The canonical economic model of crime is extended to include individuals’ expectation of future income mobility as an additional crime determinant. The model predicts that with all else being held constant including net gain from current criminal activity, reduced upward mobility among the poor increases crime rate whereas enhanced downward immobility among the rich decreases crime rate. These predictions are empirically supported by country-level panel data. In addition, a typical change in income distribution was implemented, such that both the poor and the rich groups contribute to crime rate with a greater contribution among the poor.

Abstract

The canonical economic model of crime is extended to include individuals’ expectation of future income mobility as an additional crime determinant. The model predicts that with all else being held constant including net gain from current criminal activity, reduced upward mobility among the poor increases crime rate whereas enhanced downward immobility among the rich decreases crime rate. These predictions are empirically supported by country-level panel data. In addition, a typical change in income distribution was implemented, such that both the poor and the rich groups contribute to crime rate with a greater contribution among the poor.

참고문헌 (14)

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  11. Glaeser, E. L., "Crime and Social Interactions", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, pp.507~548 (1996)
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