경제요인이 범죄율에 미치는 영향 : 선진국과 개도국 비교분석
How Economic Factors Affect Crime Rate: A Comparative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries
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목적 : 본 논문의 목적은 경제적 요인들이 범죄 발생에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 것인지와 선진국과 개도국 간의 차이점은 무엇인지에 대한 실증분석이다. 연구 설계, 자료, 방법론 : 본 연구는 실질 GDP 성장률과 실업률, 소득 불평등(지니 계수), 인플레이션, 그리고 교육요인 등의 경제변수가 법죄유에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위한 계량모형을 설정하고, 자료는 세계은행, UNODC 범죄 통계를 사용하였다. 분석 결과 : 연구대상 전체 국가에 대한 모형분석 결과는 경제 변수가 선진국과 개발도상국 모두에서 범죄율을 중대한 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다. 비교분석 결과 GDP 성장률, 실업률, 인플레이션이 선진국보다 개발도상국의 범죄율에 더 큰 영향을 미친다는 흥미로운 결과를 확인하였다. 반면, 소득 불평등과 교육 수준은 개발도상국보다 선진국의 범죄율에 더 많은 영향을 미친다. 시사점 : 이 연구는 개발도상국과 선진국에서 범죄를 일으키는 다른 요인들에 대한 더 나은 이해를 제공한다. 국가의 경찰력을 증가시키거나 무거운 처벌을 강화하기 보다는 국민들의 소득증대와 사회적 환경개선을 통해 범죄를 예방하는 것이 필요하다.
Abstract
Purpose : The purpose of this paper is to analyze how economic factors affect national crime and what’s are differences between developed versus developing countries Research design, data, methodology : As macroeconomic variables can influence the crime rate of developed and developing countries, this study will use the real GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, income inequality (Gini coefficient), inflation, and education factors. We compiled the data set by combining the World Bank data set on the number of each independent variable per year and UNODC Homicide Statistics. Results : Results from empirical model I of total countries show that economic variables have a major role in determining crime rates both in developed countries and developing countries. Comparative model II (developing countries), model III (developed countries) revealed the interesting outcome that GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation have a more significant effect on the crime rate in developing countries than in developed countries. On the other hand, income inequality and education level has more impact on the crime rate in developed countries than in developing countries. Conclusions : This study provides a better understanding of the different factors that cause crime in developing and developed countries. Furthermore, we propose that countries take different approaches to reduce crime based on their incomes and social environmental situations, rather than increasing their police force, or reinforcing heavy penalties.
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