이명박 정부의 대북정책과 한･미･북 3자관계 전망
Lee Myung-bak Government’s Policy toward North Korea and Trilateral Relations among South Korea, the U.S. and North Korea
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On the premise that the current trilateral relations among South Korea, the U.S. and North Korea are governed by the three independent bilateral relations which influence each other, the present study is aimed to analyze and predict the influences that the Lee Myung Bak government’s policy toward North Korea will have on the future relations among the above three countries. It seems that Lee government will maintain the principles of pragmatism and reciprocity in its North Korea policy to be concretized in the future. Such principles indicate that any clear warning will be given to North Korea which has been chronically accustomed to unilateral benefit rather than reciprocity in South-North relations. Regarding the South-North exchanges and cooperations. there will be no interruption in a short-term perspective, but there is also a possibility of stagnation in a long-term perspective. Such mode may have a negative influence on the relations between North Korea and the U.S. On the contrary, it seems a mode of friendship or cooperation will rule the South Korea-U.S. relations more than any other time. This is because Lee government’s North Korea policy, based on pragmatism and reciprocity, partially conforms with the U.S. policy toward North Korea.
Abstract
On the premise that the current trilateral relations among South Korea, the U.S. and North Korea are governed by the three independent bilateral relations which influence each other, the present study is aimed to analyze and predict the influences that the Lee Myung Bak government’s policy toward North Korea will have on the future relations among the above three countries. It seems that Lee government will maintain the principles of pragmatism and reciprocity in its North Korea policy to be concretized in the future. Such principles indicate that any clear warning will be given to North Korea which has been chronically accustomed to unilateral benefit rather than reciprocity in South-North relations. Regarding the South-North exchanges and cooperations. there will be no interruption in a short-term perspective, but there is also a possibility of stagnation in a long-term perspective. Such mode may have a negative influence on the relations between North Korea and the U.S. On the contrary, it seems a mode of friendship or cooperation will rule the South Korea-U.S. relations more than any other time. This is because Lee government’s North Korea policy, based on pragmatism and reciprocity, partially conforms with the U.S. policy toward North Korea.
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