Bayesian과 Bootstrap 방법을 이용한 수위-유량 관계곡선의 불확실성 분석
Uncertainty Analysis of Stage-Discharge Curve Using Bayesian and Bootstrap Methods
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구는 수위-유량 관계곡선을 이용한 하천 유량 산정방법의 불확실성을 감소시키는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 하천 유량 자료는 수문해석과 수자원 관리를 하는데 있어서 필수적으로 요구되는 자료이기 때문에 정량적으로 정확한 산정 방법을 고찰할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 Bayesian 및 Bootstrap 방법을 이용한 수위-유량 관계식의 매개변수와 기존의 매개변수를 비교하였으며, 불확실성을 평가하기 위해서 표준오차법에 -분포를 적용한 추정치 결과의 신뢰구간을 비교하였다. 그 결과, 본 연구를 통해 개발된 회귀분석에 의한 추정값은 약 1~5 %미만의 차이가 보이며, 각 지점에서 수위에 따라 기존보다 더 적용성이 우수한 결과를 보이는 부분도 존재함을 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시한 방법별로 하천의 특성 및 수위에 맞게적용한다면 보다 더 신뢰성 있는 유량 자료를 확보할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.
Abstract
The objective of this study is to reduce the uncertainty of the river discharge estimation method using the stage-discharge relation curve. It is necessary to consider the quantitative and accurate estimation method because the river discharge data is essential data for hydrological interpretation and water resource management. For this purpose, the parameters estimated by Bayesian and Bootstrap methods are compared with the ones obtained by stage-discharge relation curve. In addition, the Bayesian and Bootstrap methods are applied to assess uncertainty and then those are compared with the confidence intervals of the results from standard error method which has t-distribution. From the results of this study, The estimated value of the regression analysis developed through this study is less than 1 ~ 5%. Also It is confirmed that there are some areas where the applicability is better than the existing one according to the water level at each point. Therefore, if we use more suitable method according to the river characteristics, we could obtain more reliable discharge with less uncertainty.
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