선박 대형화에 따른 선박 제원 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

In the early 2000’s, many maritime researchers had a negative opinion about this question “Is it possible to go beyond the 18kTEU barrier?” However, 18kTEU+ container vessels have been operated since the second half of 2013. The transportation of containers by sea began in the 1950s, 8kTEU+ container ships were sailed in 2003, 13kTEU+ container ships were deployed in 2006. In 2015, 21kTEU+ container vessels have been ordered and are going to be operated in the second half of 2017. There are several reasons why size of vessel dramatically increase in spite of a negative outlook and technical issues which are related to practical development. (1) the capital costs for the larger units are actually not increasing in a linear progression but slightly below that (2) the economies of scale of the voyage costs can be reduced to the single biggest cost driver: the propulsion consumption of the ships (3) it could be explained the increase of ocean route service demand and the extension of international trade (4) the liner service market becomes more competitive due to the gradual collapse of shipping conference. The mega shipping companies try to have the mega container vessels more and more in order to survive the intense competition. The main maritime routes are expected to redesigned with hub-ports as the center that are being secured depth and infrastructure fixes such as longer and stringer quays, container crane(quay crane). “Mega-ships have mega-dimensions, which pose challenges to ports and require adaptations.” Some main ports in republic of Korea should be prepared to maintain the position of hub-ports. Ports, that is oriented hub-ports all over the world, located in Singapore, Netherlands, and China just accelerate the expansion of port facilities and the development of new concept container terminal system This study examines some determinants and trends with the growing container vessel size. The purpose of this study is to propose the time of first appearance on 25kTEU and 30kTEU class container ship and analyze the expected vessel specifications above-mentioned container ships. The results of this paper are as follows: Firstly, we expect the trend of growing container vessel size to last due to changing in the scale of container ships from the past until now, trend over 10 years, and the opinion of a so-called ‘experts.’ Secondly, in case of the first service time on ultra large container ships, a scenario 3 of this study is a very high accuracy in comparison with other previous studies. Analysis shows that 20kTEU+ will begin to service in 2017, 25kTEU+ will provide service in 2022, and 30kTEU+ might start to operate in 2026. Thirdly, a scenario 3 of this study is considered appropriate result in the expected vessel specifications. The following are the estimated specifications in case of 25kTEU class (1) Length overall: 474m (2) Breadth: 61m (3) Scantling draft: 18.3m and in case of 30kTEU class, (1) Length overall: 517m (2) Breadth: 65m (3) Scantling draft: 19.4m.