기후변화에 따른 남색이마잠자리 잠재적 서식지 및 미래 분포예측
Predicting the Potential Habitat and Future Distribution of Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata Ris, 1911 (Odonata: Libellulidae)
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
기후변화 생물지표인 남색이마잠자리(B. chalybea flavovittata)는 우리나라에는 2010년 제주도에서 최초로 관찰되어기록된 이후 최근 영산강 일대에서 월동이 확인되었다. 본 연구는 MaxEnt 모델을 이용하여 남색이마잠자리의 잠재적 분포를 예측하고, 기후변화에 따른 서식지 확산을 예측하고자 하였다. 본 종의 분포 자료는 세계생물다양성정보기구인 GBIF의 검색 결과를 수집하였으며, 2019년 5월부터 2023년 5월까지 확보된 현장조사 결과를 포함하였다. 또한, 생물기후변수는 WorldClim 데이터베이스에서 제공받아 사용하였다. 잠재적 종 분포예측과 미래 분포예측은MaxEnt 모델을 사용하였다. 유충은 위도상 제주특별자치도 제주시(33.318096°)부터 경기도 여주시(37.366734°)까지, 경도상 전라남도 진도군(126.054925°)부터 경상남도 양산시(129.016472°)까지 관찰되었다. 본 종의 서식지는 람사르 습지유형 분류체계에 따라 M(permanent rivers, streams, creeks) 유형의 습지가 12개소(50.0%)로 가장 많았으며, Tp(permanent freshwater marshes, pools) 유형이 11개소(45.8%), F(estuarine waters) 유형이 1개소(4.2%) 로 분류되었다. 현재 분포지역에 기초하여 MaxEnt 모델을 이용한 잠재적 분포 예측 결과, 기존 서식지 외에 울산광역시, 대구광역시 일대가 서식확률이 높았다. 또한, 미래 시나리오를 적용하였을 때, 2050년대와 2090년대 분포가능지역이 넓어져 가까운 미래에 남부 서남해안, 남부 내륙 대구광역시 일대, 동해안 일대로 서식범위가 확장될 것으로 예측되었다. 남색이마잠자리는 가까운 미래에 서식범위를 확장할 가능성이 높게 예측되었는데, 본 연구 결과는향후 모니터링을 지속하면서 서식지를 공유하는 토착 자생생물자원의 보전 및 관리를 위한 기초자료를 제공할 수있을 것으로 기대한다.
Abstract
Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata, a climate-sensitive biological indicator species, was first observed and recorded at Jeju Island in Korea in 2010. Overwintering was recently confirmed in the Yeongsan River area. This study was aimed to predict the potential distribution patterns for the larvae of B. chalybea flavovittata and to understand its ecological characteristics as well as changes of population under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from May 2019 to May 2023. We used for the distribution model among downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. MaxEnt model was adopted for the prediction of potential and future distribution for B. chalybea flavovittata. Larval distribution ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Jeju-si, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (33.318096°) to Yeoju-si, Gyeonggi-do (37.366734°) and eastern longitude from Jindo-gun, Jeollanam-do (126.054925°) to Yangsan-si, Gyeongsangnam-do (129.016472°). M type (permanent rivers, streams and creeks) wetlands were the most common habitat based on the Ramsar’s wetland classification system, followed by Tp type (permanent freshwater marshes and pools) (45.8%) and F type (estuarine waters) (4.2%). MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution with high inhabiting probability included Ulsan and Daegu Metropolitan City in addition to the currently discovered habitats. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was predicted that the possible distribution area would expand in the 2050s and 2090s, covering the southern and western coastal regions, the southern Daegu metropolitan area and the eastern coastal regions in the near future. This study suggests that B. chalybea flavovittata can be used as an effective indicator species for climate changes with a monitoring of their distribution ranges. Our findings will also help to provide basic information on the conservation and management of co-existing native species.
참고문헌 (29)
- Adhikari Pradeep, "Potential distribution of the silver stripped skipper (Leptalina unicolor) and maiden silvergrass (Miscanthus sinensis) under climate change in South Korea", Entomological Research, 52(11), pp.483~492 (2022), 한국곤충학회[DOI]
- William T. Bean, "The effects of small sample size and sample bias on threshold selection and accuracy assessment of species distribution models", Ecography, 35(3), pp.250~258 (2012), Wiley[DOI]
- 조낭현, "MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 소나무 잠재분포 예측 및 환경변수와 관계 분석", 한국농림기상학회지, 22(2), pp.47~56 (2020), 한국농림기상학회
- Jong-Yun Choi, "Habitat Preferences and Trophic Position of Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata Ris, 1911 (Insecta: Odonata) Larvae in Youngsan River Wetlands of South Korea", Insects, 11(5), pp.273~ (2020), MDPI AG[DOI]
- Jane Elith, "A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists", Diversity and Distributions, 17(1), pp.43~57 (2010), Wiley[DOI]
- K. S. Farheen, "The Status of Ramsar wetlands in India: A review of ecosystem benefits, threats, and management strategies", 한국습지학회지, 24(2), pp.123~141 (2022), 한국습지학회
- J A Hanley, "The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.", Radiology, 143(1), pp.29~36 (1982), Radiological Society of North America (RSNA)[DOI]
- Johanna S. U. Hedlund, "Unraveling the World’s Longest Non-stop Migration: The Indian Ocean Crossing of the Globe Skimmer Dragonfly", Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9 (2021), Frontiers Media SA[DOI]
- Pilar A. Hernandez, "The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods", Ecography, 29(5), pp.773~785 (2006), Wiley[DOI]
- Hijmans, R., "Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas", International J. of Climatology, 25(15), pp.1965~1978 (2005)
- 홍진솔, "Risk map for the range expansion of Thrips palmi in Korea under climate change: Combining species distribution models with land-use change", Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology, 22(3), pp.666~674 (2019), 한국응용곤충학회[DOI]
- Kiyoshi Inoue, "Critical species of Odonata in Japan", International Journal of Odonatology, 7(2), pp.311~324 (2004), Worldwide Dragonfly Association[DOI]
- IPCC, "Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (2022), Cambridge University Press
- Ishida, K., "Monograph of Odonata larvae in Japan", pp.447~ (1996), Hokkaido University Press
- Jung, K. S., "Odonata of Korea", pp.512~ (2007), Ilgongyuksa
- Jung, K. S., "The dragonflies and damselflies of Korea", pp.400~ (2012), Nature and ecology
- 강유진, "생태축 연결을 고려한 하천습지의 적정 후보지 선정 방안", 한국습지학회지, 25(2), pp.111~120 (2023), 한국습지학회
- Da-Yeong Lee, "Distribution Patterns of Odonate Assemblages in Relation to Environmental Variables in Streams of South Korea", Insects, 9(4), pp.152~ (2018), MDPI AG[DOI]
- 이삼희, "한강하구에서 하도변화와 식물천이의 상호작용에 따른 습지형성 기작", 한국습지학회지, 24(4), pp.320~330 (2022), 한국습지학회
- Maltchik, L., "Responses of odonate communities to environmental factors in southern Brazil wetlands", J. of the Kansas Entomological Society, 83(3), pp.208~220 (2010)
- 남궁혜반, "Predicting potential current distribution of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) using MaxEnt model in South Korea", Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology, 23(2), pp.291~297 (2020), 한국응용곤충학회[DOI]
- "Biodiversity of the Korean Peninsula" (2022)[URL]
- "National Institute of Biological Resources (Version 2023-03-27)" (2022)[URL]
- Paulson, D., "Catalogue of Life Checklist (Version 2023-10-04)" (2023)
- Steven J. Phillips, "Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions", Ecological Modelling, 190(3-4), pp.231~259 (2006), Elsevier BV[DOI]
- Phillips, S. J., "Opening the black box : an open-source release of Maxent", Ecography, 40(7), pp.887~893 (2017)
- "Ramsar handbooks 5th edition" (2016)[URL]
- Shin Man‐Seok, "Prediction of climate change effects on the potential distribution of cycad blue butterfly (Luthrodes pandava) in South Korea", Entomological Research, 52(12), pp.522~531 (2022), 한국곤충학회[DOI]
- 성찬용, "MaxEnt 모형 분석을 통한 남북한 접경지역의 금강초롱꽃 자생가능지 예측", 한국환경생태학회지, 32(5), pp.469~477 (2018), 한국환경생태학회[DOI]