Prediction of changes in distribution area of Scopura laminate in response to climate changes of the Odaesan National Park of South Korea
1
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study was performed to provide important basic data for the preservation and management of Scopura laminata, a species endemic to Korea, by elucidating the spatial characteristics of its present, potential, and future distribution areas. Currently, this species is found in the Odaesan National Park area of South Korea and has been known to be restricted in its habitat due to its poor mobility, as even fully grown insects do not have wings. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, 20 collection points around Odaesan National Park were assessed to analyze and predict spatial distribution characteristics. The precision of the MaxEnt model was excellent, with an AUC value of 0.833. Variables affecting the potential distribution area of S. laminata by more than 10% included the range of annual temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and precipitation of the driest quarter, in order of greatest to least impact. Compared to the current potential distribution area, no significant difference in the overall habitable area was predicted for the 2050s or 2070s. It was, however, demonstrated that the potential habitable area would be reduced in the 2050s by up to 270.3 km from the current area of 403.9 km; further, no potential habitable area was anticipated by the 2070s according to our predictive model. Taken together, it is anticipated that this endemic species could be significantly affected by climate changes, and hence effective countermeasures are strongly warranted for the preservation of habitats and species management.
Abstract
This study was performed to provide important basic data for the preservation and management of Scopura laminata, a species endemic to Korea, by elucidating the spatial characteristics of its present, potential, and future distribution areas. Currently, this species is found in the Odaesan National Park area of South Korea and has been known to be restricted in its habitat due to its poor mobility, as even fully grown insects do not have wings. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, 20 collection points around Odaesan National Park were assessed to analyze and predict spatial distribution characteristics. The precision of the MaxEnt model was excellent, with an AUC value of 0.833. Variables affecting the potential distribution area of S. laminata by more than 10% included the range of annual temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and precipitation of the driest quarter, in order of greatest to least impact. Compared to the current potential distribution area, no significant difference in the overall habitable area was predicted for the 2050s or 2070s. It was, however, demonstrated that the potential habitable area would be reduced in the 2050s by up to 270.3 km from the current area of 403.9 km; further, no potential habitable area was anticipated by the 2070s according to our predictive model. Taken together, it is anticipated that this endemic species could be significantly affected by climate changes, and hence effective countermeasures are strongly warranted for the preservation of habitats and species management.
참고문헌 (19)
- Allan JD, "Stream Ecology; Structure and Function of Running waters" (2007), Springer
- Baldwin RA, "Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research", Entropy, 11, pp.854~866 (2009)
- ChoiYoung-Eun, "Trends in Daily precipitation events and their extremes in the southern region of Korea", 환경영향평가, 11(3), pp.189~204 (2002), 한국환경영향평가학회
- 정남일, "수온 증가가 한강 수계의 어류 서식지에 미치는 영향", 한국물환경학회지, 27(3), pp.314~321 (2011), 한국물환경학회
- Elith J, "A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists", Divers Distrib, 17, pp.43~57 (2011)
- Hijmans RJ, "Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas", Int J Climatol, 25, pp.1965~1978 (2005)
- Jin YH, "The wingless stonefly family Scopuridae (Plecoptera) in Korea", Aquat Insects, 27, pp.21~34 (2005)
- 강형식, "기후변화에 따른 낙동강 수계 어류 서식처 영향 분석", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 46(1), pp.1~12 (2013), 한국수자원학회
- Kaushal SS, "Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States", Front Ecol Environ, 8, pp.461~466 (2010)
- Komatsu T, "Notes on the growth of nymph of Scopura longa Uéno (Plecoptera)", New Insect, 14, pp.37~40 (1970)
- 공동수, "기후변화의 생물학적 평가를 위한 한국온수생물지수(KTI)의 개발 및 적용", 한국물환경학회지, 29(1), pp.114~126 (2013), 한국물환경학회
- Water resources system network building for climate change (II), "Lee JH", Korea Environment Institute, ~ (2011)
- Phillips SJ, "Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions", Ecol Model, 190, pp.231~259 (2006)
- Phillips SJ, "Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation", Ecography, 31, pp.161~175 (2008)
- Uchida S, "What is Scopura longa Uéno, 1929 (Insecta, Plecoptera)? A revision of the genus", Zool Sci, 4, pp.699~709 (1987)
- Uéno M, "Scopuridae an aberrant Family of the Order Plecoptera", Insecta Matsumurana, 2, pp.154~159 (1938)
- Underwood AJ, "River restoration. Selected extracts from the Rivers Handbook", pp.182~204 (1996), Blackwell Science
- "WorldClim - Global Climate Data" (2005)[URL]
- Yoon IB, "A taxonomic study on the stonefly (Plecoptera) nymphs of Korea (I) - Suborder Holognatha and Systellognatha", Entomol Res Bull, 11, pp.111~139 (1985)