선박대형화에 따른 도선사 수요 예측과 공급 정책 개선 방안에 관한 소고

Abstract

The pilotage market is undergoing many environmental changes of which the enlargement of ship size is a typical example. Whereas the vessels of 75,000 tons or more out of the total vessels calling at South Korean ports have shown a double-digit growth, the number of ships below the size of 75,000 tons has recorded a mere one-digit or negative growth from 2001 to 2013. Such growth in large-sized vessels is expected to affect the demand of maritime pilots as it will decelerate the number of ships calling at ports. In this study, we first forecasted the demand of pilots in consideration of the trend of increase in the size of the vessels calling at Korean ports. In the latter part of the study, we derived alternative suggestions for improving pilot supply policy. As shown in the results of the analysis, the average annual growth rate of the pilotage acts for ships recorded 6.8% in 1992-2002 but it is expected to shrink to 1.4% in 2015-2025. Eventually, the number of pilotage acts performed by one pilot in 2025 is expected to be 613 based on the simple regression analysis. However, considering the size effect, that figure is expected to decrease to 585 and the total number of 7,337 ships under pilotage in the overall pilotage market will be reduced. Consequently, the number of pilots is forecasted to reduce about 12 people (11.97 people) in the market. In the pilot supply side, the number of captains aboard merchant ships of 6,000 tons or more has increased and the average competition rate in the apprentice pilot aptitude test has maintained 10 to 1. Unless the sudden reduction of crew resources is carried out, the pilot supply market is expected to maintain stability until 2025. Nevertheless, it is judged that the life cycle of pilots be shorter than before because the candidates for apprentice pilot aptitude test have been aging. When forecasting the age structure of the candidates for apprentice pilot aptitude test, 55-59 year-old age is expected to exceed 50% in 2017. The trend of aging candidates would play as a biggest problem in the pilot supply structure by shortening the working duration as a pilot, which will lead to supply shortage and quality degradation in the pilotage market. Although the demand for pilots is not to be increased significantly, the pilots' quality and supply problems in the market are expected to take place. To improve pilot supply policies, it is necessary to promote the reforms such as relaxation of pilot boarding requirements, improvement of pilot training and examination systems. With measures to improve the quality of the pilots, these reforms are also going to soften the supply of pilots.