한국의 對 인도네시아 수출입 물동량의 결정요인과 한·ASEAN FTA 효과

Abstract

Economic cooperation between Korea and Indonesia was established on the basis of the effectiveness of Korea-ASEAN FTA in 2007. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), launched in 2015 and comprising 10 ASEAN countries, offered an opportunity to expand the cooperation in economy, trade, and logistics. Indonesia has occupied an important position in terms of trade and investments of Korea. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the 9th export market of Korea as of 2014 (USD 113.6 billion), and the investment scale of Korea in Indonesia has reached 7th place (USD1.13 billion). Particularly, as the Indonesian government is planning the construction and expansion of regional infrastructure for development in the ocean industry, it will serve as an opportunity for Korean companies in terms of investments. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia has accounted for 17.8% and 56.7% of the entire export volume and import volume of South Korea as of 2014, respectively. In 2014, the export volume and import volume stood at 9.72 million ton(R/T) and 51.33 million ton(R/T), respectively. However, the annual import and export volume growth is slow. In addition, in 2014, the largest export volume from the ports of Korea to Indonesia were mineral fuels (55.0%), followed by steel products (19.0%) and petrochemical products (6.6%). The largest imports were mineral fuels (90.7%), followed by agricultural products (3.7%) and paper stock/paper products (1.5%). Thus, Indonesia is very important in terms of trade and volume. Despite its importance, the empirical research on Korea’s logistics for Indonesia is insufficient. In such a context, this paper aims to identify the determinants of Korea’s import and export trade volume for Indonesia and analyze the effects of Korea-ASEAN FTA on the country’s seaborne trading volume for Indonesia. The empirical results are as follows. First, the result suggests that a 10% increase in global economy activity (GEA) and the world petroleum price (WPP) increase the export trade volume by 26.6% and 4.70% respectively. This result emphasizes the important role of GEA in increasing export trade volume to Indonesia in Korea. The relative real effective exchange rates (REER) variable has negative and significant impact on export trade volume, where a 10% increase in the REER decreases export trade volume by 15.8%. Second, the result suggests that a 10% increase in Korean economy activity (KEA) increase the import trade volume by 16.7%. The WCP variable has positive and significant impact on import trade volume, where a 10% increase in the WCP increases import trade volume by 2.56%. Whereas, the world petroleum price (WPP) variable has negative and significant impact on import trade volume, where a 10% increase in the WPP decreases import trade volume by 1.22%. Moreover, in absolute terms, the FTA analysis result indicates the export volume was larger than import volume after the FTA and the growth rate of both imports and exports significantly reduced between 2013 and 2014.