An Investigation of the Korean General Insurance Industry: Evidence of Structural Changes and Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Loss Ratios
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In this study, we first present a brief overview of the Ko- rean general insurance market. We then explore the characteristics of the loss ratios of the Korean general insurance industry and apply Markov regime-switching methodology to model the loss ratios of these insurance companies by line of business based on changes in economic regimes. This study applies a number of confirmatory tests such as Zivot-Andrews test (2002), the Chow (1960) test and the Bai and Perron (1998) to confirm the presence of structural breaks in the time series of the loss ratios by line of business. Then, we employ Markov regime-switching methodology to model these loss ratios. We find empirical evidence that the loss ratios reported by insurance companies in Korea is characterized by two distinct regimes; a regime with high volatility and a regime with low volatility, except for vehicle insurance. Our analyses suggest that macro-economic conditions have significant explanatory effect on loss ratios but the direc- tion of effect differs based on the line of business and the regime. Unlike previous studies that have applied linear regressions or divided the sam- ples into different periods and then apply linear regressions to model loss ratios, we argue for the application of Markov regime-switching method- ology, which are able to automatically distinguish the different regimes that may be associated with the movements of loss ratios based on differ- ing economic conditions and regulatory upheavals. This study provides a more in depth understanding of loss ratios in the general insurance indus- try and will be of value to insurance practitioners in modelling the loss ratios associated with their businesses to aid in their decision making. The results may also provide a basis for further studies in other markets apart from Korea as well as for shaping policy decisions related to loss ratios.
Abstract
In this study, we first present a brief overview of the Ko- rean general insurance market. We then explore the characteristics of the loss ratios of the Korean general insurance industry and apply Markov regime-switching methodology to model the loss ratios of these insurance companies by line of business based on changes in economic regimes. This study applies a number of confirmatory tests such as Zivot-Andrews test (2002), the Chow (1960) test and the Bai and Perron (1998) to confirm the presence of structural breaks in the time series of the loss ratios by line of business. Then, we employ Markov regime-switching methodology to model these loss ratios. We find empirical evidence that the loss ratios reported by insurance companies in Korea is characterized by two distinct regimes; a regime with high volatility and a regime with low volatility, except for vehicle insurance. Our analyses suggest that macro-economic conditions have significant explanatory effect on loss ratios but the direc- tion of effect differs based on the line of business and the regime. Unlike previous studies that have applied linear regressions or divided the sam- ples into different periods and then apply linear regressions to model loss ratios, we argue for the application of Markov regime-switching method- ology, which are able to automatically distinguish the different regimes that may be associated with the movements of loss ratios based on differ- ing economic conditions and regulatory upheavals. This study provides a more in depth understanding of loss ratios in the general insurance indus- try and will be of value to insurance practitioners in modelling the loss ratios associated with their businesses to aid in their decision making. The results may also provide a basis for further studies in other markets apart from Korea as well as for shaping policy decisions related to loss ratios.
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