노동시장의 균형모형에 대한 연구 : 식별과 추정
Building an Identified Equilibrium Model of Aggregate Labor Market
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초록
본 연구는 노동수요와 노동공급구조를 결합하여 동시에 분석하고자 하는 연구로서, 특히, 노동수요와 공급구조에 대한 계량경제학적인 식별이 가능함을 보인다. 분석을 위해, 시간-비분리적인 선호구조와 시간-분리적인 생산구조로 구성된 모형경제를 설정한다. 설정된 모형에서 유도되는 최적화조건의 추정을 통하여 선호와 생산구조의 모수들을 추정하고, 추정된 모수들을 이용하여 노동수요와 공급함수를 추정한다. 실증분석에서는 비선형연립방정식모형의 계량경제학적 식별을 확인하고 비선형도구변수추정방법을 사용하였다. 추정결과에 따르면 거시노동시장의 변동은 노동시장의 균형이론을 기각하지 않는 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
This paper builds an econometrically identified equilibrium model of the labor market, by which one can jointly review labor supply and demand structure. A simple model economy is presented, where preferences are time-nonseparable, but technology is time-separable. The model allows recovery of the preference and technology parameters relevant to labor supply and demand behavior. The empirical model is verified to satisfy an econometric identification condition and estimated using a nonlinear instrumental method. The identified labor supply and demand parameters are consistent with theory. In conclusion, it appears that aggregate labor market fluctuations do not easily reject equilibrium interpretation.
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