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Terrorism and FDI Flows:Cross- Country Dynamic Panel Estimation

이홍식|강성진
한국계량경제학회|2007.03|계량경제학보 (Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics)|제18권 제1호|pp. 57-77

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참고문헌

키워드

테러TerrorismPanel System GMM동학적 패널 GMM
주제분류경제학

초록

The huge cost associated with terrorist incidents and the related significant redistribution of economic resources motivate a better understanding of the economic consequences of terrorism. By using cross- country panel data on FDI flows and terrorism for 1980-2000, this paper examines the effect of terrorism as well as some economic and institution factors on the FDI flows. In order to allow for possible endogeneity of terrorism, we use dynamic panel system GMM estimation. The estimation results confirm our hypothesis that terrorism deters FDI inflows. Depending on definition of terrorism variables, an increase of terrorism decreases FDI stock by 0.3～0.6%. It is shown that the FDI determinants of economic and institution factors play significant role as well.

Abstract

테러의 발생으로 인하여 나타나는 중요한 경제 자원의 재분배로 막대한 비용이 발생하게 되는데, 이는 테러의 경제적 효과가 어느 정도 되겠는가 하는 연구의 동기가 되고 있다. 1980～2000년 기간의 국가별 외국인 직접투자와 테러의 정도에 대한 패널자료를 이용하여 본 연구는 전통적인 결정 변수들로 알려진 경제적 변수 외에 테러와 관련된 변수들이 외국인 직접투자에 대하여 얼마나 심각한 영향을 미치는지를 실증분석하고 있다. 테러 관현 변수들이 역으로 경제변수들의 영향을 받을 가능성이 있어 내생성의 가능성을 고려한 동학적 패널 시스템 GMM 추정방법을 사용하였다. 추정결과를 보면 테러발생이 외국인 직접투자의 유입을 저해하는 것으로 나타나는데 테러의 증가는 정의변수에 따라 0.3～0.6% 정도의 외국인 직접투자의 저량이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 그 외에 전통적으로 외국인 직접투자의 결정요인으로 알려진 경제 및 제도 변수들도 중요한 결정요인으로 나타났다.

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