20세기 재분석 자료(20CR)를 이용한 남극대륙의 기온 변화
Change of Temperature using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Data (20CR) on Antarctica
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Antarctica is very sensitive to climate change but the number of stations is not sufficient to accurately analyze climate change in this regoin. Model reanalysis data supplements the lack of observation and can be used as long term data to verify climate change. In this study, the 20CR (Twentieth Century Reanalysis) Project data from NCEP/NCAR and monthly mean data (temperature, solar radiation and longwave radiation) from 1871 to 2008, was used to analyze the temperature trend and change in radiation. The 20CR data was used to validate the observation data from Antarctica since 1950 and the correlation coefficients between these data were determined to be over 0.95 at all stations. The temperature increased by approximately 0.23oC/decade during the study period and over 0.20oC/decade over all of the months. This increasing trend was observed throughout the Antarctica and a slight increase was observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. In addition, solar radiation (surface) and longwave radiation (surface and top of atmosphere) trends correlated with the increase in temperature. As a result, outgoing longwave radiation at the surface is attenuated by atmospheric water vapor or clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere was reduced. In addition, the absorbed energy in the atmosphere increases the temperature of the atmosphere and surface, and then the heated surface emits more longwave radiation. Eventually these processes are repeated in a positive feedback loop, which results in a continuous rise in temperature.
Abstract
Antarctica is very sensitive to climate change but the number of stations is not sufficient to accurately analyze climate change in this regoin. Model reanalysis data supplements the lack of observation and can be used as long term data to verify climate change. In this study, the 20CR (Twentieth Century Reanalysis) Project data from NCEP/NCAR and monthly mean data (temperature, solar radiation and longwave radiation) from 1871 to 2008, was used to analyze the temperature trend and change in radiation. The 20CR data was used to validate the observation data from Antarctica since 1950 and the correlation coefficients between these data were determined to be over 0.95 at all stations. The temperature increased by approximately 0.23oC/decade during the study period and over 0.20oC/decade over all of the months. This increasing trend was observed throughout the Antarctica and a slight increase was observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. In addition, solar radiation (surface) and longwave radiation (surface and top of atmosphere) trends correlated with the increase in temperature. As a result, outgoing longwave radiation at the surface is attenuated by atmospheric water vapor or clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere was reduced. In addition, the absorbed energy in the atmosphere increases the temperature of the atmosphere and surface, and then the heated surface emits more longwave radiation. Eventually these processes are repeated in a positive feedback loop, which results in a continuous rise in temperature.
참고문헌 (20)
- 대륙기지 활용 정책기획연구 보고서, "한국해양연구원 부설 극지연구소", 한국해양연구원 부설 극지연구소, 305~, pp.BSPE 08150-102-7 (2009)
- Bromwich DH, "Strong trends in the skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses in the high and midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958- 2001", J Climate, 17, pp.4603~4619 (2004)
- Carril AF, "Climate response associated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings of Antarctic Peninsula: a multi-model ensemble analysis", Geophys Res Lett, 32, pp.L16713~ (2005)[DOI]
- Compo GP, "Review article the twentieth century reanalysis project", Q J Roy Meteorol Soc, 137, pp.1~28 (2011)
- Kanamitsu M, "Recent changes implemented into the global forecast system at NMC", Weather Forecast, 6, pp.425~435 (1991)
- Meredith MP, "Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century", Geophys Res Lett, 32, pp.L19604~ (2005)[DOI]
- Monaghan AJ, "Rcent trend in Antarctic snow accumulation from polar MM5 simulations", Philos T R Soc Lond S-A, 364, pp.1683~1708 (2006)
- AVN global analysis, "Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF", pp.NOAA, forecast system
- Parkinson CL, "Trenss in the length of the southern ocean sea ice season, 1979-1999", Ann Glaciol, 34, pp.435~440 (2002)
- Qinghua D, "Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming", Nat Geosci, 4, pp.398~403 (2011)
- Ramillien G, "Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE", Global Planet Change, 53(3), pp.198~208 (2006)
- Saha S, "The NCEP climate forecast system", J Climate, 19, pp.3483~3517 (2006)
- Solomon S, "Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change", pp.996~ (2007), Cambtidge University
- Steig EJ, "Warming of the Antarctic icesheet surface since the 1957 international geophysical year", Nature, 457(22), pp.459~463 (2009)
- Studinger M, "Science opportunities for a Long-Range Antarctic research aircraft", EOS Trans, 86(4), pp.39~40 (2005)[DOI]
- Thomas R, "Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antartica", Science, 306, pp.255~258 (2004)
- Trenberth KE, "Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change, In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.235~336 (2007), ambridge University Press
- Turner J, "Antarctic Climate Change during the Last 50 Years", Int J Climatol, 25, pp.279~294 (2005)
- Vaughan DG, "Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula", Climatic Change, 60, pp.243~274 (2003)
- Velicogna I, "Measurement of time variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica", Science, 311(5768), pp.1754~1756 (2006)[DOI]