The Second Bush Administration and North Korea
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We cannot neglect the fact that already a year has gone past since the previous session of the Six-Party Talks. Because of North Korea’s continued refusal to participate in a fourth session, the onetime momentum of the Six-Party Talks naturally has vanished. The U.S. tolerance might have come close on its limit, but even that Bush administration has no intention whatever of putting an end to the Six-Party Talks at present. No progress in real terms can be expected even if Pyongyang accepted holding a fourth session. Thus the negotiation may roll back into exactly the same state in which it had started. It is hard to imagine the United States would engage itself in direct talks with North Korea. The Bush Administration also would not take drastic measures, such as using military strength or carrying out economic sanctions, until Iraq at the very least becomes politically stable. While asking China to put pressure, the United States, within this year, will not be going to send the stalemated North Korean problem to the UN Security Council. However, North Korea will push nuclear development forward quietly under the closed environment, if the status quo continues.G?
Abstract
We cannot neglect the fact that already a year has gone past since the previous session of the Six-Party Talks. Because of North Korea’s continued refusal to participate in a fourth session, the onetime momentum of the Six-Party Talks naturally has vanished. The U.S. tolerance might have come close on its limit, but even that Bush administration has no intention whatever of putting an end to the Six-Party Talks at present. No progress in real terms can be expected even if Pyongyang accepted holding a fourth session. Thus the negotiation may roll back into exactly the same state in which it had started. It is hard to imagine the United States would engage itself in direct talks with North Korea. The Bush Administration also would not take drastic measures, such as using military strength or carrying out economic sanctions, until Iraq at the very least becomes politically stable. While asking China to put pressure, the United States, within this year, will not be going to send the stalemated North Korean problem to the UN Security Council. However, North Korea will push nuclear development forward quietly under the closed environment, if the status quo continues.G?