A Prospect for US-North Korean Relations beyond the BDA Issue

Abstract

The February 13 Agreement has provided us not only opportunities but also challenges. We have just entered into a long, possibly rocky, process of denuclearizing North Korea. In order to keep the momentum of the denuclearizing process, several things need to be kept in focus. First of all, it is quite essential to pay keen attention to domestic political dynamics of the United States and North Korea, that is, how domestic political dynamics are related to the issue of North Korea as a whole and the North Korean nuclear problem in particular. Second, we should be more concerned with and keenly aware of changes in regional setting and strategic alignment, most importantly the US-China relations. The United States has found that Chinese cooperation is essential in solving the North Korean problem and China has been cooperative. Many more consultations are going on between the United States and China. To solve North Korean problems well beyond nuclear ones, South Korea needs to find ways to utilize the unfolding US-China cooperative relations and to be part of it. So while maintaining and strengthening South Korea-US-Japan TCOG relations, it would be worth seeking a new trilateral cooperation, or at least consultation, mechanism among South Korea, the United States and China. Thirdly, it is necessary to look beyond the current North Korean nuclear problem and to see not only the trees but also the forest since the North Korean nuclear problems are related to more fundamental North Korean problems. North Korean nuclear problem is a symptom of North Korean problems and one of many issues we should tackle in the process of realizing true peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. Last, but not least, as we have seen in the BDA case, technical details matter. Especially, to realize a swift and fast implementation of denuclearization, much more detailed homework should be done in advance. And real technical expertise is required. Meetings and consultations among technical experts are essential, and, through this, it would be possible to breed common understanding and common language, that would back up the political determination in real terms. To keep the momentum of the Six-Party Talks going and realize the denuclearization of North Korea, much more comprehensive understanding and detailed/focused approaches are required. For that purpose, South Korea should intensify its consultation and coordination with the US and seek all cooperation it can find in other participating countries, especially China.