East Asia’s Fluid Dynamics: Whither Obama’s Pivot to Asia?

Abstract

President Obama’s pivot to Asia accomplished some of its core objectives, most notably strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, stabilizing U.S.-Japan-ROK security relations, and establishing diplomatic relations with Myanmar. However, it has left key tasks undone for the incoming Trump administration, including reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and finding equilibrium with a rising China. Moreover, the apparent demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership casts a dark shadow over Obama’s legacy in East Asia, and calls into question America’s continued leadership of the global economic order. President Trump will need to navigate East Asia’s fluid environment, a region lacking strong multilateral institutions. Trump’s decisions, particularly his handling of a possible crisis on the Korean Peninsula and China’s growing ambitions, will heavily influence how historians ultimately assess the wisdom of Obama’s pivot.