The War in Ukraine and the Security Environment on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the global order and security environment in Europe. It has also precipitated considerable changes to the security situation in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula as well. After observing a situation where a non-nuclear state in Ukraine, which had previously dismantled its nuclear arsenal, was invaded by a nuclear state in Russia, the North Korean regime has likely concluded that it should never abandon its nuclear weapons, the last resort for the security of the regime. Through measures such as the legislation of preemptive use of nuclear weapons, North Korea’s nuclear policy is becoming extremely aggressive and this appears to be related to Russia’s threats of preemptive nuclear attacks. The war is accelerating the fragmentation of the international order into competing blocs, and North Korea is utilizing this environment to increase its nuclear and missile provocations. Within this international order of competing blocs, the coalition of authoritarian states led by China and Russia believes that North Korea has considerable strategic value. Backed by the support of China and Russia, North Korea has sought to solidify its status as a nuclear state. A diplomatic and peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear problem is becoming more difficult and, therefore, South Korea must prepare for the problem becoming worse and more protracted. South Korea needs to strengthen extended deterrence with the U.S., enhance its ‘three-axis’ system, and make preparations for the development of nuclear weapons. The war in Ukraine has reminded ‘in-between’ states such as South Korea of the importance of external balancing policies as well as the need to strengthen independent national defense. The reason why Ukrainian forces have fought well in the war is that Ukraine implemented policies to strengthen its military after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, such as enhancing the training of its troops. Likewise, South Korea needs to prepare for crises on the Korean Peninsula by further strengthening ROK-U.S. joint military exercises that were resumed recently to bolster South Korea’s national defense.