개입- ARIMA모형을이용한 지가변동예측에관한연구 : 지역별하부토지시장을중심으로

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the intervention effects of the 200 million houses supply plan and economic crisis in 1997, originated from the shortage of foreign currency, and also to predict the fluctuation rate of land price in Korean land sub-market with intervention model in 2002 and 2003. The results of this study can be summarized as follows ; According to regions classified by local governments, the intervention effects of 200 million houses supply plan occurred from after 3 months to after 15 months as forms of decreasing step function. The intervention effects of economic crisis occurred after 3 months from all local regions in Korea as forms of increasing step function. As results of forecasting with intervention ARIMA model, the predicted increasing rate of total land price in Korea during the year 2002 is 5.59%. Also it is analyzed that the increasing rate of land price will be differentiated according to local land sub-markets. In order words, Seoul Metropolitan Area will show the highest increasing rate of land price and, far from Seoul Metropolitan Area, successively Central Area, Ho Nam Area and Kyoung Nam Area, the increasing rate of land price will become lower.