장기임대주택사업의 경제성 분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

Recently, the government has introduced a long term rental housing system and is spearheading a plan to expand housing with involvement of private sector. With this backdrop, this study aims to see whether profitability goes up in proportion with investment risk as project periods tend to be elongated; to search for ways to increase the profitability; and ultimately to help provide stable foundation for smooth implementation of the project. By utilizing the discounted cash flow analysis methods, this study compares profitability of the long term rental housing project with that of existing 5-year project. The analysis shows that 60㎡ size is better in profitability than 85㎡. Based on a discount rate at 20% of 5-year project's IRR, both of them are unfeasible. In the sensitivity analysis, profitability of the long term project responded highly elastically to market variables such as price fluctuation. Considering the effect of market variables on the profitability, the discount rate adjusted by the risk of long-term may exceed the above rate. As the result of the sensitivity study, proposals are made to improve profitability, including raise of construction density described as the ratio of gross building area to lot size, revision of housing fund standards on amount and interest, additional discount of land price and reduction of age-life for depreciation. Additionally this study stresses stabilization of market, the inducement of the participation of REITs in the project, and the liquidation of cash flow by ABS to minimize the risk from long-term investment.