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사우디아라비아 석유정책이 제2차 석유파동에 미친 영향

The Influence of Saudi Oil Policy on the Second Oil Shock

송상현
한국이슬람학회 (Korean Association Of The Islamic Studies)|2015.06|한국이슬람학회논총 (Annals of Korean Association of the Islamic Studies)|제25권 제2호|pp. 21-51

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참고문헌

키워드

OPECSaudi Arabia사우디아라비아Islamic Revolution사우디 석유정책제2차 석유파동이란이슬람 혁명캠프 데이비드 협정Saudi Oil PolicyThe Second Oil ShockThe Camp David Accords
주제분류종교학

초록

It is generally believed that the increasing political instability in Iran in late 1978 and the consequent Islamic Revolution in 1979 caused the second oil shock in the world oil market. Although these political events in Iran increased the instability of the world oil market, their impact on skyrocketing oil prices was limited. When we look into the world oil market during this period in detail, it was Saudi Arabia, which gave market forces opportunities to agitate the world oil market by skyrocketing oil prices. In the first half of 1979, Saudi oil policy was deviated from its long-term economic interests in maximizing oil wealth through price moderation mainly due to short-term political exigencies. During this period, Saudi Arabia had two main political concerns, the political unrest in Iran and the conflict in Yemen. The Saudi government needed to appease the new Iranian government and tried to show its amicable attitude towards its oil policy. On the other hand as the skirmishes between the Yemen Arab Republic and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen erupted into a full scale war by February 1979, diplomatic cooperation from Iraq and Syria wasneeded to achieve the cease-fire. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia tried to press the US to change its controversial foreign policy in the Middle East based on the Camp David Accords. All these political considerations in early 1979 reflected on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy by reducing its oil production and raising oil prices. However, politically motivated Saudi oil policy aggravated a tighter world oil market and the consequent rising oil prices in the spot market with the growing influence of market forces over the world oil market mainly contributed to the second oil shock.

Abstract

It is generally believed that the increasing political instability in Iran in late 1978 and the consequent Islamic Revolution in 1979 caused the second oil shock in the world oil market. Although these political events in Iran increased the instability of the world oil market, their impact on skyrocketing oil prices was limited. When we look into the world oil market during this period in detail, it was Saudi Arabia, which gave market forces opportunities to agitate the world oil market by skyrocketing oil prices. In the first half of 1979, Saudi oil policy was deviated from its long-term economic interests in maximizing oil wealth through price moderation mainly due to short-term political exigencies. During this period, Saudi Arabia had two main political concerns, the political unrest in Iran and the conflict in Yemen. The Saudi government needed to appease the new Iranian government and tried to show its amicable attitude towards its oil policy. On the other hand as the skirmishes between the Yemen Arab Republic and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen erupted into a full scale war by February 1979, diplomatic cooperation from Iraq and Syria wasneeded to achieve the cease-fire. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia tried to press the US to change its controversial foreign policy in the Middle East based on the Camp David Accords. All these political considerations in early 1979 reflected on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy by reducing its oil production and raising oil prices. However, politically motivated Saudi oil policy aggravated a tighter world oil market and the consequent rising oil prices in the spot market with the growing influence of market forces over the world oil market mainly contributed to the second oil shock.

참고문헌 (44)

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