인도네시아 4.5 총선거와 이슬람계 정당의 대연합 가능성에 대한 소고

Abstract

Indonesia is the biggest Islamic state in the world whose total population is 220 milion in 2003. During the last six decades in the modern government in Indonesia, Islamic parties have managed to create coalition governments. However, they have failed to organize their own strong government in long-term basis. During the Soeharto regime of 32 years, Islamic parties were forced to obey the military government. Fall of Soeharto regime immediately open the era of civil government. Therefore through the General Election on 7th June 1999, Abdurrahman Wahid, who was supported by Islamic PAN party, was elected as the first civilian president in Indonesia. But his presidential duration is very short due to the lack of harmony of power politics. Indonesia scheduled to have her 9th General Election on 15th April 2004 that contains very important meaning. There is no doubt that the coalition of non-Islamic parties including Megawati's PDI-P party and Akbar Tanjung's Golkar is more powerful than that of Islamic parties. But the economic dilemma under the Megawati government helped to reduce the nation-wide support for the PDI-P party. In the meantime, the second largest Golkar party has many presidential candidates. That means Golkar now is under the hard competition of leadership. In these circumstances, it is possible for Islamic parties led by Amien Rais to win the second round presidential competition, which is scheduled on 20th September 2004, if he succeeds to invite Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as his running mate.