초미세먼지의 심혈관계와 호흡기계 입원영향 평가 및 건강편익 산정
The Health Impacts and Benefits of Cardiovascular and Respiratory Hospitalization Attributed to PM2.5
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초록
입자상 대기오염물질 중 상대적으로 건강위해 가능성이 더 크다고 보고된 초미세먼지(PM2.5)의 건강영향에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 서울시 65세 이상 연령집단을 대상으로 초미세먼지(PM2.5)가 심혈관계 입원과 호흡기계 입원에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 일반화 부가모형을 이용하여 분석결과, 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 농도 10㎍/㎥ 증가시 심혈관계 입원위험이 3.74%, 호흡기계 입원위험이 8.84% 증가하였다. 또한 수도권 지역의 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 농도 수준이 세계보건기구의 대기질 권고 기준을 달성한다고 가정하였을 때 기대되는 건강편익을 산출하였다. 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 농도개선으로 인하여 30세 이상 연령집단에서 조기사망은 7,852명(95% CI : 5,396～10,251명) 감소하였다. 65세 이상 연령집단에서 호흡기계 입원과 심혈관계 입원은 각각 12,572건(95% CI : 8,577～16,567건)과 12,378건(95% CI : 6,557～18,321건) 감소하는 것으로 추정되었다. 이것을 경제적 비용으로 환산하면 3조 2,744억원에 해당한다. 환경오염으로부터 건강을 보호하는 것은 사회경제적으로 가장 중요한 편익으로, 다양한 대기관리정책에 대하여 건강편익 산정결과를 토대로 정책의 효과와 효율성을 평가함으로써 정책의 우선순위와 우선대상지역을 결정하는 데 유용한 판단 근거로 활용할 수 있다.
Abstract
We examined the association of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5㎛ (PM2.5) with cardiovascular hospitalization and respiratory hospitalization in Seoul, Korea, between 2006 and 2010. In addition, we estimate the reduction in the number of hospitalizations that would result from implementing the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline. The generalized additive model was used to evaluate the association between PM2.5 and hospitalizations. To estimate the health benefits, we used the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program. Based upon increase of 10㎍/㎥ of PM2.5, the cardiovascular hospitalization risk was increased by 3.74%(95% CI : 1.99 ～ 5.51%) and the respiratory hospitalization risk was increased by 8.84%(95% CI : 6.09 ～ 11.66%). It was estimated that the health benefits attaining the WHO air quality guidelines for would suggest an annual reduction of 7,852(95% CI : 5,396～10,251) premature deaths, 12,378(95% CI : 6,557～18,321) cardiovascular hospitalizations and 12,572(95% CI : 8,577～16,567) respiratory hospitalizations. The health impact assessment and health benefit estimation results of environmental policy can be used as an useful decision making basis on setting policy priority and preferential areas.
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