위협분석 도구로서 총괄평가의 필요성과 한국군 적용방안
Net Assessment as a Analytical Framework for Military Threat: Necessity and Way of Application
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초록
본 논문은 한국이 직면한 전략환경의 도전적 요소와 군사위협 평가의 문제점을 제시하고, 이를 극복하기 위한 위협분석 도구로서 ‘총괄평가’의 필요성과 한국적 적용방안을 제시하는 데 목적을 둔다. 한국은 남북간 경쟁과 미중 경쟁이라는 이중 경쟁체제 속에서 국가생존을 도모해야 하는 도전적 국제질서에 직면해있다. 한국에는 어느 때 보다 한국을 둘러싼 이중적 경쟁체제의 본질을 현실적으로 직시하고, 이러한 경쟁 관계의 핵심요소인 ‘군사력 균형’을 왜곡 없이 평가하는 노력이 절실하게 요구된다. 본 연구는 총괄평가가 냉전기 장기적 미소 군사경쟁을 미국의 ‘승리’로 견인하는데 유용한 위협분석 도구라는 점에 착안하여, 앞으로 한국군이 치열한 경쟁체제 속에서 복합적인 위협을 통찰력 있게 분석하고 효율적인 경쟁전략을 수립하기 위해서 총괄평가기구의 신설이 필요하다는 점을 주장할 것이다.
Abstract
This paper aims to present the challenges of the strategic environment facing Korea and problems in analyzing military threats, and to present the need for a “Net Assessment” as a analytical framework for “threat analysis”. South Korea faces a challenging “competitive international order” amid a dual competition system of “inter-Korean rivalry” and “U.S.-China competition.” More than ever, South Korea is desperately in need of efforts to realistically face up to the nature of the “double-competition system” surrounding the Korean Peninsula and evaluate without distortion the key element of such a rivalry, the military balance. After all, the study aims to provide insight into the problems of ‘inter-Korean’ and ‘inter-American’ balance in the current internal and external rivalry, based on the fact that the Net Assessment is a useful threat analysis tool that led the US to the long-term ‘winner’ of the Cold War.
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